PatraData Simulation: Anies Wins Thin If Ridwan Kamil's Opponent In The 2024 Jakarta Pilkada

Former Governor of DKI Jakarta Anies Baswedan (@aniesbaswedan)

JAKARTA - The Data from the Big Data Technology-Based Political Research and Consultant Institute, released the results of the 2024 Jakarta Pilkada simulation. The results show a tight competition between two strong candidates, Anies Baswedan and Ridwan Kamil, with a thin difference.

"Anies is predicted to fill the top of the vote at 17,800 polling stations (TPS) based on the number of polling stations for the 2024 General Election. Meanwhile, Ridwan Kamil has the potential to control the vote acquisition at 13,664 polling stations," said PatraData Research and Assistance Director, Hasmin Aries Pratama in his statement, Monday, June 24.

This simulation of TPS-based vote acquisition was carried out using machine learning algorithm technology and big data analytics. This method of political mapping by PatraData is to predict voter preferences based on historical Pilkada and Election data in the last 10 years.

Apart from the trend of algorithms, PatraData also utilizes geospatial mapping technology to understand the distribution of support in various areas of Jakarta. Mapping is carried out with the potential support of political parties. Furthermore, Hasmin explained, former DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan who is projected to receive support from PKB, PKS, PDIP, Perindo, and PPP will vote significantly. The support of the five parties is estimated to provide Anies with 53 percent of the votes in the DKI Jakarta Regional People's Representative Council (DPRD).

"Anies is predicted to control 17,800 polling stations in the green zone, which is a strong base, 4,310 polling stations in the yellow or competitive zone, and 8,656 polling stations in the opponent or red zone," he explained.

Meanwhile, the former Governor of West Java, Ridwan Kamil, when promoted by the Prabowo-Gibran coalition in the 2024 election, will increase competitiveness. Support from the Gerindra, Golkar, PAN, Democrats, and PSI parties is said to give the advantage by projecting 47 percent of the votes in the DKI Jakarta DPRD.

"Ridwan Kamil is predicted to control 13,664 polling stations in the green zone, compete at 7,523 polling stations in the yellow zone, and face opponent dominance in 9,579 polling stations in the red zone," Hasmin continued.

From the results of the simulations carried out, Hasmin concluded that the 2024 Jakarta Pilkada was no less competitive than the previous regional elections which were attended by Anies, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama or Ahok and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY). Because Anies Baswedan and Ridwan Kamil both have a strong support base.

"This result shows that the 2024 Jakarta Pilkada will be one of the most competitive in history. Anies Baswedan and Ridwan Kamil both have strong support in various segments of voters," said Hasmin.