SPIN Survey: PSI And Gelora Electability Rise Ahead Of The 2024 Election

Prabowo Subianto with Gibran Rakabuming Raka and elite supporting political parties/DOK Instagram @prabowo

JAKARTA - Executive Director of Survey and Polling Indonesia (SPIN), Igor Dirgantara, conveyed the results of a survey conducted by his institution. One of them is photographing the opportunities of political parties in the 2024 election contestation.

From the survey results, there are several new parties that tend to have a great chance of entering Senayan, namely the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) and the Gelora Party (Indonesian People's wave).

"In addition to PSI, the Gelora Party also received high appreciation so that they had the opportunity to qualify for Senayan," said Igor in a written statement, Friday, February 2.

He said the electability of the two parties had increased due to the impact of the supported presidential and vice presidential candidates, namely Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka.

"The main reason the public chose the majority political party was reasoned because the presidential candidate was carried by the party," he said.

Indeed, PSI and Gelora are not the only ones who get the coattail effect from political support to the presidential candidate.

Survey data shows that almost all political parties that support presidential and vice-presidential candidates have received this impact, even including Gerindra who got the highest score.

"There is a diffuse coattail effect trend pattern where it appears that for example the parties that gather in the Prabowo-Gibran coalition are affected by their electability due to supporting Prabowo's presidential candidate," he explained.

"Beside Gerindra, PSI and Gelora are clearly visible," continued Igor.

In the SPIN survey, PSI received 4 percent electability. Meanwhile, the Gelora Party got 3.6 percent. Gelora's position is above PPP which gets 3 percent, even though the party bearing the Kaaba symbol is currently one of Senayan's parties.

"While PPP is still slumping, it has not been able to cross the parliamentary threshold," he explained.

Gelora's Electability

Apart from the factor of political support to presidential and vice-presidential candidates, there are several reasons why the two parties tend to get high electability.

"There are several arguments why the Gelora party received appreciation for support from the public," he said.

The work program campaigned by the Gelora Party tends to be accepted by the public. Moreover, all of them are their needs.

"Like; free lectures, meat subsidies, eggs and free milk for pregnant women, in the form of illiteracy in the Koran," he explained.

Another factor is the character of two high-ranking Gelora Party officials, namely Anis Matta as General Chair, then Fahri Hamzah who served as Deputy General Chair.

Igor said these two figures became representatives of moderate Islamic figures. Moreover, he said, the two Gelora Party figures tend to be diligent in communicating with all groups so that they get high appreciation from voters.

"The figures of Anis Matta and Fahri Hamzah as moderate nationalist Islamic figures. Then, the roadshow program to elites in the regions and to grass root or ummat which is carried out directly by these two figures reaps high appreciation," he said.

On the other hand, Gelora's struggle is the same as Prabowo Subianto in his alignment with the Palestinian people today. Moreover, said Igor, Prabowo, who donated Rp5 billion in personal money at the Dialogue of the District for Palestinian Solidarity with the theme We Love Palestine at Djakarta Theater, Thursday (9/11) was also considered to have given a diffuse coattail effect to the party on October 28, 2019.

"The consistency of Gelora fighting with Prabowo for the independence of Palestine needs to be known at the event of support for Palestine organized by Gelora, Prabowo made a direct contribution of 5 billion rupiah to Palestine," he explained.

Finally, the supporting factor is why Gelora gets a high level of electability, because of the narrative of unity and integrity after the 2024 General Election. Where the party has voiced a discourse on reconciliation after the election, including when Prabowo Subianto won the presidential election.

"The narrative of national reconciliation is a narrative that is always echoed by the Gelora party considering the importance of national unity in order to answer global challenges," he continued.

PSI's electability

Igor explained that PSI's electability was quite successful in working on his party so that it could go quite high on the electability ladder, and even successfully entered the agreed parliamentary threshold of 4 percent.

"The findings of this survey also show that PSI has succeeded in breaking the parliamentary threshold. PSI, which is also a participant in the 2019 election, managed to penetrate significantly and shift PPP," said Igor.

The factor causing PSI's electability to be high is because the people's program campaigned for in the 2024 election is quite effective for the public. Apart from Joko Widodo's aspect, the current president.

"Besides the program, PSI has quite succeeded in identifying itself with Jokowi. Especially after Kaesang Pangarep became PSI General Chair," he explained.

The Electability Rate of Political Parties:

1. Gerindra: 21.8 percent

2. PDIP: 18.9 percent

3. Golkar: 9.7 percent

4. PKB: 7.3 percent

5. NasDem: 7 percent

6. PKS: 5.1 percent

7. Democrats: 5 percent

8. PAN: 4 percent

9. PSI: 4 percent

10. Gelora: 3.6 percent

11. PPP: 3 percent

12. PBB: 2.1 percent

13. Perindo: 2.1 percent

14. Ummat: 0.1 percent

15. Hanura: 0.1 percent

16. Garuda: 0.1 percent

17. Workers: 0.1 percent

18. PKN: 0.1 percent

The SPIN survey was conducted in the range of January 28-31, 2024. Where survey samples were conducted on 1,200 respondents spread across 34 provinces throughout Indonesia. The criteria for respondents are residents aged 17 years and over or already have an ID card.

The method used is random digit diling. The survey process conducted through telecommunications is carried out by a trained surveyor with the help of a questionnaire. As a result, the margin of error is around 2.8 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.