Y-Publica Survey: Prabowo-Gibran Can Win One Round

Prabowo Subianto with Gibran Rakabuming Raka/DOK Instagram @prabowo

JAKARTA - The results of the Y-Publica survey show that the 2024 presidential election will take place in one round with the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka pair who won the battle with electability recorded at 50.2 percent.

"The Prabowo-Gibranbakal pair won the 2024 presidential election which is likely to take place in just one round," said Y-Publica Executive Director Rudi Hartono as reported by ANTARA, Saturday, December 2.

Meanwhile, the other pair of candidates fell behind with a fairly far electability difference. The pair Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md. won 23.4 percent, the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar pair 17.9 percent, and the rest did not know / did not answer 8.5 percent.

According to Rudi, there was a significant increase in Prabowo's electability when paired with the eldest son of President Joko Widodo, who is still the Mayor of Surakarta. In the August survey with a simulation of many names, Prabowo's electability was still around 30 percent.

After the decision of the Constitutional Court which allowed regional heads aged less than 40 years to run in the 2024 presidential election, Gibran was able to advance in the presidential election contestation and boost the electability of the candidate pair number 2.

"The entry of Gibran into the presidential election has increasingly provided a strong impetus for Prabowo, as a form of Jokowi's strong support for former two presidential election rivals who are now strong allies in the government," said Rudi.

Previously, Jokowi's jokes by giving endorsements still seemed vague, especially to Prabowo.

"The advancement of Gibran as Prabowo's vice presidential candidate has raised electability to the possibility of winning one round," said Rudi.

Until the first half of 2023, Jokowi still shared support with Prabowo and Ganjar.

"The ideal format at that time was to pair two figures who could guarantee the sustainability of the program after Jokowi no longer serves as president," explained Rudi.

However, the division was inevitable after Ganjar joined other PDI-P elites against the Israeli national team's presence in the U20 World Cup plan.

"Ganjar further positioned himself as a party official instead of a figure who could be more independent," explained Rudi.

Jokowi's opposition to the PDI-P elite, according to him, further sharpened by strengthening Jokowi's support for Prabowo. At its peak when the Constitutional Court's decision was issued, the attack after attack from the PDI-P camp was addressed to Jokowi and his family until they were accused of treason and building dynasty.

"With the current situation developing, the PDI-P is trying to calculate the potential damage to be experienced by suppressing it to a minimum. The main target now is to keep the PDI-P vote solid or not too eroded by the constellation of presidential elections," said Rudi.

When viewed from the power of public support for Ganjar, there is almost no increase in electability when paired with Mahfud. Anies' additional electability was even higher, almost 5 percent after pairing with Cak Imin.

"Threats for the Ganjar and PDI-P camps are getting bigger if Anies-Cak Imin is able to steal opportunities to increase electability in the next 2.5 months so that they can catch up and even move up to second place shifting Ganjar-Mahfud," concluded Rudi.

The Y-Publica survey on November 15-22, 2023, represents 1,200 people in all provinces in Indonesia. Data was taken through face-to-face interviews with respondents selected on a multistage random sampling. Margin of error of up to 2.89 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.