Sigi Alvara Research Center: Ganjar-Mahfud Champion, Anies-Muhaimin Predicted Not To Qualify For The First Round

Ganjar and Mahfud (National Winning Team)

JAKARTA - Ganjar Pranowo - Mahfud MD is predicted to advance to the second round of the 2024 presidential election. The pair Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar may not pass the first round.

It is a prediction from the Alvara Research Center which has just released the results of their latest survey regarding the electability of the candidates for presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The survey was conducted on October 1-6, 2023. The Alvara Research Center simulated three pairs of candidates who will run in the 2024 presidential election.

The three are Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, and Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar.

"Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD received 36.5 percent of the vote, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka 30.1 percent, while Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar 19.4 percent. Then those who have not decided 13.9 percent," said Lilik Purwandi as a Senior researcher at the Alvara Research Center, Tuesday, October 24.

Lilik said that in general, the Ganjar-Mahfud MD pair is superior to the other two pairs, although the political dynamics in the future could change the electability standings.

"This of course depends on the strategy of each couple in increasing the electoral process until February 2024," he said.

He also said that the Ganjar-Mahfud duo dominated the voter sectors of Gen X and Baby Boomers.

Meanwhile, Gen Z and Gen Millenial voters have a fairly tight competition between Ganjar-Mahfud MD and Prabowo Gibran.

"The two segments of this generation are the largest voters in the 2024 presidential election. So it takes extra work to be able to win the hearts of these young voters and increase the electability of each pair," added Lilik Purwandi.

Then when referring to the electability above, the 2024 presidential election will potentially be carried out through two rounds. For the first round, the Anies-Muhaimin or AMIN duo will run aground.

"All couples still have the opportunity to increase their electability, but the Ganjar-Mahfud and Prabowo-Gibran pairs are predicted to continue to contest in the second round," he said.

"So that the selected pair is expected to be known only in July 2024," he continued.

This survey from Alvara used the multi-stage random sampling method with face-to-face interviews involving 1,517 respondents aged 17 years and over.

Samples were taken in all provinces in Indonesia, with the number of samples each province proportional to the population.

Vulnerable margin of error of 2.52 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. The profile of respondents in this survey is in accordance with Indonesia's demographic profile, both in terms of gender, age, area, and religion.