Understanding Chatib Basri's Purpose About The Nike Logo Pattern For Indonesia's Economic Recovery

Senior economist, Chatib Basri. (Photo: Instagram @chatibbasri)

JAKARTA - The government is optimistic that economic growth in 2021 will return to the positive zone, namely in the range of 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent. Likewise, the national economy is expected to move out of the negative zone. This means that the Indonesian economy can begin to emerge from the recessionary trap at the beginning of this year.

Then, what is the pattern of Indonesia's economic recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic? Minister of Finance 2013-2014, Chatib Basri said Indonesia had passed the worst situation in the second quarter of 2020 when economic growth was minus 5.3 percent. Then, in the third quarter of 2020 it has improved, although it is still minus 3.5 percent. It is possible that in the fourth quarter of 2020 it will still be negative.

"But if this trend continues, I see that there is a possibility that we will record positive growth in the first quarter of 2021," he said, at an online seminar held by the Board of Trustees of the University of Indonesia (UI), Wednesday, January 27.

Chatib assessed that Indonesia's economic recovery would form a Nike shoe emblem or swoosh-shaped recovery. However, he revealed that there are conditions if this pattern is to be achieved.

"There must be very strong assumptions that must be held in order for the swoosh-shaped to be formed. What? The pandemic is not spreading anymore," he said.

W-shaped letter pattern

Even though it has been seen that the Indonesian economy will move into a positive zone and the pattern of recovery will resemble the Nike logo, Chatib warned that the government should not be lulled into.

This is because Chatib still sees the potential for a change in the pattern of economic recovery from swoosh-shaped to W-shaped recovery if the COVID-19 pandemic breaks out again.

"If the pandemic breaks out again, our recovery will not be in the form of a swoosh-shaped or a Nike logo but in the shape of the letter W. Where the worst happened in the second quarter of 2020 it gets better but then if the pandemic breaks out, it will come down again," he said.

Health is an important factor in determining the pattern of economic recovery

According to Chatib, economic conditions will depend on the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic or the domestic health sector. As long as the health sector has not recovered, the economy has the potential to continue to contract.

"I said that handling a pandemic is the key. Health is the key. Without recovery, our health will not be able to recover," he said.

Chatib added that there are several business sectors that can survive the COVID-19 pandemic. One of them is health.

In addition, he said, other business sectors are able to transform towards digital. The reason is, the pandemic has made people shop digitally to avoid transmission of COVID-19.

"Some people remember that in 1998, many people sell food in tent stalls. Now the same thing, but not tent stalls, but selling via Instagram, Facebook," he said.