5 Percent Economic Growth In 2021 Is Just A Wish

Illustrated. (Irfan Meidianto / VOI)

JAKARTA - Senior researcher at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Enny Sri Hartati assessed that the government's prediction that economic growth will reach 5 percent next year is very difficult to achieve.

Enny said, this is not without reason. The COVID-19 pandemic has limited the support for national economic growth.

"So, in 2021 the prediction is 4 to 5 percent, in my opinion too optimistic. Because the support for that is very limited, our fiscal incentives or stimulus also know exactly how our fiscal health condition and our monetary sector is very fragile or fragile," he said. , in virtual discussion, Wednesday, December 23.

According to Enny, if we look at the two main components of national economic growth, namely household consumption and investment, even if it is added by external sector support, growth is still difficult to achieve.

"Even though our trade balance is in a surplus, there is no increase in exports, so how this will contribute to increasing economic growth," he said.

With the existing trend, Enny predicts that in the fourth quarter of 2020 Indonesia's economic growth will improve but has not yet reached a positive level.

Furthermore, Enny said, positive numbers will be seen starting in the first quarter of 2021 where conditions are starting to improve. However, there is still the possibility of the most optimistic correction at 1 to 2 percent.

"Maybe if the trend continues to improve, there will be no accidents in the middle of the road, other factors outside the economy, maybe in the second quarter of 2021 we will just head for positive growth and will continue gradually until the end of the year," he said.