Head To Head Anies Baswedan Vs Ganjar Pranowo In The Survey, Jokowi Supports Who?

Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. (Doc. Central Java Provincial Government Public Relations)

JAKARTA - One day two declarations. The 2024 presidential election contestation began earlier this week. Anies Baswedan, Ganjar Pranowo, two figures promoted by different political parties will advance in the 2024 presidential race.

NasDem officially promoted Anies Baswedan as the governor of DKI Jakarta to run for the 2024 presidential election. In a matter of hours, the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) announced Ganjar Pranowo as its 2024 presidential candidate.

"The choice of the NasDem presidential candidate is the best of the best. This is how Nasdem finally gave a person, Anies Baswedan," said NasDem Party Chairman Surya Paloh in front of Anies Baswedan.

Paloh said Anies was the best person. Thus, there is no reason for the NasDem Party not to nominate him.

"Why Anies Baswedan? The answer is, why not the best," he said.

On the other side, PSI's Deputy Chairperson of the Board of Trustees Grace Natalie, explained that the election of Ganjar Pranowo's name was obtained from the results of popular consultation. PSI's DPP management is said to have come down to ask directly who the presidential candidate is.

"Based on the results of the popular consultation, we announce that PSI will nominate Mr. Ganjar Pranowo as PSI's 2024 presidential candidate," said Grace Natalie in an online press conference, Monday, October 3.

According to Grace, since the beginning Ganjar Pranowo has been superior to other candidates. for PSI, she said, Ganjar was the best candidate because he had the same nationality and diversity as what PSI was fighting for.

"In addition, Ganjar is the most suitable figure to continue the government that has been carried out by Mr. Jokowi," said Grace.

"This is the 2024 presidential candidate chosen by the people from the people's consultation, not the wish of the PSI elite," she added.

As a political figure, continued Grace, Ganjar Pranowo is known as an active person. The way Ganjar uses social media to convey his thoughts and what he does proves that the PDIP politician keeps up with the times.

"And understand how young people communicate," added Grace.

Jokowi Supports Who?

President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) chose not to comment on the NasDem declaration that established Anies Baswedan as a presidential candidate for 2024. The atmosphere is still in mourning regarding the Malang Kanjuruhan tragedy, said Jokowi speaking in response to the political declaration.

"I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't want to comment because our position is still in a sad mood," Jokowi said in an interview in Batang Regency, Central Java, as quoted from the Presidential Secretariat Youtube, Monday, October 3.

Meanwhile, at the V Projo National Working Meeting in Magelang, Saturday (21/5) which was attended by the Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo, Jokowi advised the Projo volunteers not to be in a hurry to talk politics about presidential candidates in the 2024 election.

"Focus on solving existing problems first, don't rush, don't be in a hurry, even though maybe what we support is here," said President Jokowi.

When asked whether Jokowi's statement regarding support was directed at him, Ganjar was reluctant to assume because at that time many people were present, not only himself as the Governor of Central Java.

"Who said (the support for Ganjar), there were a lot of people. I was there yesterday because of my function as governor, there was a visiting president, so I just came," said Ganjar.

How are the survey results?

CSIS Survey

In a simulation of 14 names, the Head of the Department of Politics and Social Change at CSIS, Arya Fernandes, said that Ganjar's electability had reached 25.9 percent.

Ganjar is far ahead of Prabowo with 19.2 percent electability, Anies Baswedan with 18.1 percent, Ridwan Kamil with 16.2 percent, and Sandiaga Uno with 4.3 percent.

Meanwhile, Ganjar's party partner, Puan Maharani, only had electability of 0.8 percent.

In the simulation of seven names, Ganjar was again in the top position with 26.9 percent. Then followed by Prabowo (20.1 percent), Anies (19.9 percent), Ridwan Kamil (17.5 percent), and Sandiaga (4.4 percent). Meanwhile, Puan Maharani is 1.1 percent.

"In the three-name simulation, the electability of Ganjar reached 33.3 percent, Anies Baswedan was 27.5%, and Prabowo was 25.7 percent," said Arya, Tuesday, September 26.

Charta Politica

Chartapolitika released the results of the electability survey for the 2024 presidential candidates on Thursday, September 22.

As a result, the name of the Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo topped the standings with an achievement of 31.1 percent leading other potential presidential candidates.

In the simulation of 10 presidential candidates, Ganjar Pranowo was ranked first with 31.1 percent, Prabowo Subianto second with 24.4 percent, and third Anies Baswedan with 20.6 percent.

Followed by the fourth Ridwan Kamil 7.2 percent, the fifth Sandiaga Uno 2.5 percent, the sixth Puan Maharani 2.4 percent, the seventh Agus Harimurti Yudhyono 2.2 percent, the eighth Airlangga Hartarto 1.7 percent, the ninth Erick Thohir 1.6 percent, and tenth Khofifah I Parawansa 1.1 percent. Meanwhile, those who did not answer or did not know were 4.9 percent.

Yunarto Wijaya, Executive Director of Chartapolitika Indonesia, said that Ganjar's electability trend tends to increase starting in December 2021 with 28.2 percent, 29.2 percent in April 2022, 31.2 percent in June 2022, and 31.3 percent in September 2022.

While Prabowo in December 2021 with 23.8 percent, April 2022 fell slightly to 23 percent, June 2022 rose slightly 23.4 percent, and September 2022 rose to 24.4 percent.

Meanwhile, Anies was stagnant at 19.6 percent in December 2021, 20.2 percent in April 2022, 20 percent in June 2022, and 20.6 percent in September 2022.

Then, if the 2024 presidential election is only followed by 3 presidential candidates, then Ganjar will come out as the winner. Followed by Prabowo and Anies.

"Ganjar Pranowo 37.5 percent, Prabowo Subianto 30.5 percent, and Anies Baswedan 25.2 percent," said Yunarto.

SMRC

The research institute Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) released the results of a survey which stated the opportunity for Ganjar Pranowo to outperform Anies Baswedan in a simulation of two presidential candidates (candidates).

"In the group of voters who know both, Ganjar has 56.4 percent support, a significant advantage over Anies Baswedan who has 32.6 percent support," said SMRC Research Director Deni Irvani as reported by ANTARA, Thursday, September 8.

In addition, Ganjar also excelled in the three-name survey simulation with the addition of Prabowo Subianto. In the group that knows the three figures, Ganjar has 44.6 percent support, while Prabowo has 25.7 percent and Anies 21.7 percent.

Therefore, Deni said that Anies' chances of winning the 2024 presidential election would be small if his competitor was Ganjar.

According to Deni, this is related to the high level of likeability of the community towards Ganjar.

"If Ganjar competes, Anies' chances of winning will be small. This is related to Anies' preference level (74 percent) which is slightly above or almost the same as Prabowo (71 percent). However, it is quite far below Ganjar (83 percent)," he explained.

Deni said that the public's preference for Ganjar has been stable in the last 1.5 years. In his survey, Deni revealed that the community's preference for Ganjar has always been at 80 percent.