China Records 10.62 Million Births In 2021, Lowest Record Since 1949

Illustration of children in China. (Wikimedia Commons/WabbitWanderer)

JAKARTA - Mainland China's birth rate fell to a record low in 2021, data showed on Monday, extending a downward trend that led Beijing last year to start allowing couples to have up to three children.

China scrapped its decades-old one-child policy in 2016, replacing it with a two-child restriction to try to avoid the economic risks of a rapidly aging population. However, the high cost of urban living prevents couples from having more children.

China's birth rate of just 7.52 births per 1,000 people in 2021, the lowest since 1949 or 72 years ago, according to National Bureau of Statistics data, added further pressure on officials to push for more births.

Meanwhile, China's natural population growth rate, excluding migration, is only about 0.034 percent for 2021, its lowest since 1960, according to the data.

There will be a total of 10.62 million births in 2021, data shows, compared to 12 million in 2020. The 2020 birth rate is 8.52 births per 1,000 people.

"The demographic challenges are known, but the pace of population aging is clearly faster than expected," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset management.

"This suggests China's total population may have peaked in 2021. It also suggests China's growth potential is likely to slow more quickly than expected," Zhang said.

In addition to allowing couples to have three children, China has adopted policies aimed at reducing the financial burden of raising children, including banning tuition fees for for-profit schools last year.

Moreover, China's working age population is already declining, which will put added pressure on the country's ability to pay for and care for an aging country.

Meanwhile, Huang Wenzheng, a demographer with the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, said the number of births would likely fluctuate in the 10 million range, before declining further in the absence of more policy changes.

"However, the policy will provide greater support for the birth rate in the long term," Huang said.

"Career advancement can be related to whether you have children or not, economic incentives, to direct cash payments by the community to meet the costs of raising a family," he said.