JAKARTA - Energy expert at Padjadjaran University (Unpad) Yayan Satyaki projects the price of Pertamax type fuel oil (BBM) will gradually decrease from Rp16,250 per liter in June, to a range of Rp12,100-Rp13,500 per liter in December 2026.
"The room for reducing the price of non-subsidized fuel has opened. Dexlite and Pertamina Dex have fallen," said Yayan as reported by ANTARA, Saturday, June 20.
He projected the price of Firstxturun to fall to Rp15,228 per liter in July, then Rp14,557 per liter in August, Rp14,112 per liter in September, Rp13,814 per liter in October, Rp13,614 per liter in November, then Rp13,479 per liter in December.
The projection estimates that the ICP will gradually decline to the level of US$90.6 per barrel in December 2026 and the exchange rate will gradually strengthen from Rp17,927 to Rp16,959 in December 2026.
Furthermore, Yayan said that the dynamics of the conflict between the United States (US)-Israel and Iran are indeed dynamic. Brent crude oil prices briefly touched 117 US dollars per barrel in April, then quickly corrected to a range of 78 US dollars per barrel after the US-Iran peace framework, which was initially to be signed in Switzerland on Friday (19/6).
Then, Brent crude prices rose back above $80 per barrel on Friday (19/6), as investors considered the increasing geopolitical risks after the cancellation of planned negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as Israel's new attacks in Lebanon.
World crude oil prices also affect the average Indonesian crude oil price (Indonesian Crude Price/ICP) which is used to determine the price of non-subsidized fuel. In the 2026 State Budget, the macro assumption sets the ICP at the level of 70 US dollars per barrel.
"My recommendation is that the government needs to prepare a simulation of scenarios, for example ICP 70-90 US dollars per barrel, because the uncertainty of the regime is much greater than the usual statistical error," said Yayan.
Nevertheless, he believes Indonesia's fiscal cushion is still strong enough to face the scenario of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although there will be a lot of portions that will be used.
He explained that the government has a SAL cushion (Budget Balance Surplus) of approximately Rp420 trillion and maintains a deficit in the range of 2.9 percent. With an average ICP at the level of US$90 per barrel, a deficit of around Rp136 trillion will occur.
Meanwhile, assuming the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes the average ICP at the level of 100 US dollars per barrel, a widening of the deficit of around Rp204 trillion will occur.
"This means that the SAL of Rp. 420 trillion still covers the scenario of reopening without cutting spending, but as a disposable insurance, not a structural solution," said Yayan.
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