JAKARTA - Bank Permata Chief Economist Josua Pardede estimates that Indonesia's trade balance surplus in April 2026 will continue, but will experience a fairly sharp decline compared to the previous month.
According to its projections, the trade balance surplus in April 2026 is expected to fall to around US$1.43 billion from US$3.32 billion in March 2026.
"So, the direction is not a bigger surplus, but a surplus that remains positive but thinner. The main factor is imports that return to normal after the Eid al-Fitr holiday and the increase in the cost of importing oil amid high global energy prices," he said in a statement, quoted Monday, June 1.
In terms of exports, performance is expected to improve on an annual basis, although it is still relatively limited on a monthly basis, namely that April 2026 exports are projected to grow 9.10 percent year-on-year (yoy), reversing from a contraction of 3.10 percent in March 2026. However, on a monthly basis (month-on-month/mom), exports are only expected to rise 0.46 percent.
Josua explained that the annual improvement in exports was more influenced by the low base of comparison in April 2025 due to the effect of the Idulfitri holiday, not because of a significant increase in export demand.
In addition, he added that data from China showed that imports from Indonesia decreased in April after increasing sharply in March, so the prospects for external demand still need to be monitored.
Meanwhile, the pressure on the trade surplus is considered stronger from the import side, namely April 2026 imports are estimated to grow 2.98 percent year-on-year and increase 10.37 percent on a monthly basis.
According to him, the increase in imports reflects the normalization of economic activities after Eid al-Fitr, the support of government policies oriented towards economic growth, and the increase in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
"This shows two things, namely domestic activity is still moving, but import needs, especially energy and raw materials, are starting to squeeze the trade surplus," he said.
Josua said that overall, the April trade balance performance is expected to be supported by a combination of exports that improved year-on-year but were relatively flat on a monthly basis, as well as imports that grew faster as economic activity recovered and energy prices increased.
According to Josua, Indonesia's trade surplus is still an important cushion for the stability of the rupiah exchange rate. However, the cushion is starting to thin, and if import growth continues to exceed exports, pressure on current transactions and the rupiah exchange rate has the potential to increase.
"We also expect the current account deficit in 2026 to widen to around 1.07 percent of GDP from a deficit of 0.11 percent of GDP in 2025, especially if pro-growth policies increase imports while global demand has not recovered strongly," he said.
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