Geopolitical Conflicts and Oil Price Spike Shadow the Movement of the Rupiah

US dollar and rupiah (Photo: dok. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in Wednesday, March 4, 2026 trading is expected to weaken against the US dollar.

To note, quoting Bloomberg, on Tuesday, March 3, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed down 0.02 percent to Rp16,872 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.13 percent to the price level of Rp16,870 per US dollar.

Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong said that the rupiah exchange rate is expected to still have the potential to weaken against the US dollar.

He added that this weakening was influenced by risk-off sentiment due to the escalation of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.

"The rupiah is expected to still be under pressure from the risk-off sentiment from the development of the US-Israel-Iran war," he told VOI, Wednesday, March 4.

In addition, he added that the increase in crude oil prices was also feared to provide additional burden on the global economy, including Indonesia.

"The increase in crude oil prices is also feared to burden the global economy including Indonesia," he said.

Lukman estimates that the movement of the rupiah on Wednesday, March 4, 2026 will be in the range of Rp16,800-Rp16,950 per US dollar.