Moody's Indonesia's Rating Downgrade, IHSG Friday Predicted to Weaken

Illustration. (Photo: Dok. Antara)

JAKARTA - The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) was overshadowed by a decline in Indonesia's rating outlook from Moody's in today's trading, Friday, February 6. Phintraco Sekuritas in its research estimates that the index will move in the range of resistance 8,200, pivot 8,100, and support 8,000.

Phintraco Sekuritas explained that the JCI yesterday closed down 0.53 percent to 8,103.88, after moving in a positive territory. The index's weakness was triggered by negative sentiment from the weakening of the index on the Asian stock exchange and gold price correction.

"The weakening occurred even though the economic growth data for the fourth quarter of 2025 was above the forecast," wrote Phintraco Sekuritas.

Phintraco Sekuritas added that the government targets economic growth of 5.4 percent in 2026. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia targets Indonesia's economic growth in the range of 4.9-5.7 percent for 2026.

Furthermore, investors will look forward to the release of the January 2026 foreign exchange reserves report and the property price index in the fourth quarter of 2025 on Friday.

Phintraco Sekuritas said that Indonesia's economy grew 0.86 percent QoQ in the fourth quarter of 2025, above the estimate of 0.68 percent QoQ, although lower than 1.42 percent QoQ in the second quarter of 2025. This marks the quarterly growth for three consecutive quarters, although slowing due to natural disasters in Sumatra.

Annual economic growth was recorded at 5.39 percent YoY in the fourth quarter of 2025, accelerating from 5.04 percent YoY in the third quarter of 2025 and above the estimate of 5.01 percent YoY.

"This growth is also the strongest annual growth since the third quarter of 2022, supported by increased private sector growth and investment," added Phintraco Securities.

For economic growth in 2025, it was recorded at 5.11 percent YoY, below the government's target of 5.2 percent YoY, but better than 5.03 percent YoY in 2024.

Phintraco Sekuritas added that Moody's Ratings lowered the outlook for Indonesia's rating to negative from stable earlier on Thursday, February 5 after the stock exchange closed. However, Moody's maintained Indonesia's rating at the Baa2 level.

Moody's assessed that the change in outlook was based on a decrease in the level of predictability in policy formulation, which risked weakening the effectiveness of policies in indicating governance weaknesses.

"This has the potential to become a negative sentiment, so it is estimated that today's JCI has the potential to test the support level at 8,000," explained Phintraco Securities.

Phintraco Sekuritas recommends five stocks for today, namely CDIA, SCMA, ARTO, TPIA, and ISAT.