JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate on Friday, January 23, 2026 is expected to strengthen against the US dollar.
To note, quoting Bloomberg, on Thursday, January 22, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed up 0.24 percent to Rp16,896 per US dollar.
Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed up 0.35 percent to a price level of Rp16,902 per US dollar.
Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that market sentiment was influenced by US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the threat of imposing tariffs on Europe and announcing a framework for an agreement on Greenland.
"Trump also said that the use of military force would not be carried out and the gold price closed at $4,830, up 1.4 percent," he said in his statement, quoted Friday, January 23.
Ibrahim conveyed in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump chose not to mention the issue of tariffs or military actions related to Greenland. Even so, Trump still reminded that if an agreement on the region is not reached, the US will consider a response to Europe's attitude.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Trump expressed his readiness to cancel plans to impose tariffs on European goods that oppose the US's move on Greenland.
Ibrahim added that Trump also said that the United States and NATO had drafted a framework for a future agreement on Greenland, although the details and content of the agreement had not been clearly revealed.
In addition, Ibrahim added that market participants would pay attention to the release of US economic data, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Initial Jobless Claims, as well as the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE).
Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim assessed that the market was quite optimistic that the government was able to suppress the practice of under invoicing in import and export activities so that it could help close the state budget deficit.
"This illegal practice has been happening structurally, because it looks at the large nominal amount up to trillions," he said.
According to him, if the government is able to attract about 30 percent of the potential losses due to under invoicing exports, the budget deficit can be covered and the practice is also said to be one of the causes of the shortfall in state revenues in the previous year.
The issue of under invoicing exports has actually been going on for a long time, but it has resurfaced again along with the state budget deficit approaching 3 percent in 2025, which also puts pressure on the rupiah exchange rate.
As is known, this issue is of special concern to Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, who emphasized that eradicating under invoicing would be an additional source of revenue for the Customs and Excise.
In the future, supervision will be tightened, including by utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) technology.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will move fluctuatio but will close stronger on Friday, January 23, 2026 in the price range of IDR 16,860 - IDR 16,900 per US dollar.
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