JAKARTA - Bank Permata Chief Economist Josua Pardede said that Indonesia's trade surplus is projected to continue in November 2025, in line with the improvement in export performance to China.
He added that the surplus value is estimated to reach 3.08 billion US dollars in November 2025, an increase from 2.39 billion US dollars in October 2025.
"The surplus is expected to reach 3.08 billion US dollars in November 2025, up from 2.39 billion US dollars in October 2025, reflecting an increase in export activity to China, especially in the form of processed nickel," he said in a statement, quoted Monday, January 5.
However, Josua said that Indonesia's exports in November 2025 are expected to decline by 2.09 percent on an annual basis (yoy) or 2.60 percent on a monthly basis (mom).
According to him, the decline is reflected in the weakening of export duty receipts in the realization of the 2025 November State Budget and this condition is mainly influenced by the normalization process after the acceleration of export shipments before the implementation of the United States reciprocal tariff, as well as the weakening of CPO prices due to the normalization of demand from India.
"This decline was partly offset by stronger exports to China, especially in processed nickel products," he explained.
On the other hand, he said that the annual growth in imports in November 2025 is expected to show improvement in line with the government's policies that are oriented towards economic growth.
According to him, Indonesian imports are projected to grow 3.81 percent year-on-year, although on a monthly basis it recorded a contraction of 6.05 percent, which was mainly due to lower oil prices.
According to him, the strengthening of annual import growth reflects the increase in domestic demand, with imports from China reported to have increased, especially for raw materials and capital goods.
Josua said the current account balance is expected to remain solid, with the deficit in 2026 projected to be below 1 percent of GDP, despite uncertainties related to the trade war still continuing.
He added that the trade surplus is expected to continue, but tends to narrow gradually as import growth is projected to exceed exports, in line with the government's increasingly pro-growth policies.
"The development of imports is driven by capital goods and raw materials, reflecting stronger investment and production activities. Export growth is expected to return to normal after the accumulation of exports before the US retaliatory tariffs in August 2025, although adjustments are expected to take place gradually," he said.
He added that the stable demand from major trading partners for a number of commodities also supported export performance and the pressure of the trade war was considered to have eased as the US approached more open negotiations.
According to him, the expansion of Indonesia's trade agreement network and deeper integration into the global supply chain is expected to continue to support export performance, including through efforts to obtain tariff-free access to the US for strategic products.
"We estimate that the current account balance in 2025 will range from a deficit of around 0.4 percent of GDP to a surplus of around 0.2 percent of GDP, highlighting the resilience of Indonesia's external sector," he said.
Josua said that in 2026, the current account balance is projected to record a slight deficit that remains below 1 percent of GDP, indicating external stability with limited pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
Overall, he added that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves are estimated to be in the range of US$148 billion to US$153 billion by the end of 2025, with the rupiah exchange rate trading in the range of Rp16,700 per US dollar to Rp16,800 per US dollar.
"In 2026, foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise moderately to US$150 billion - US$155 billion, while the rupiah is expected to end this year in the range of Rp16,675 - Rp16,775 per US dollar," he explained.
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