Rupiah is Projected to Strengthen Limitedly in the Beginning of the Week

US dollar and rupiah (Photo: dok. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate on Monday, December 22, is expected to strengthen against the US dollar (USD).

Citing data from Bloomberg, Friday, December 19, 2025, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed down 0.16 percent to Rp16,750 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.07 percent to the price level of IDR16,735 per US dollar.

Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong assessed that the rupiah movement tends to move stably with a slight strengthening opportunity and this condition is supported by risk on sentiment in the global market, especially because there is little economic data release at the end of the year.

"The rupiah is expected to consolidate with a slight or limited strengthening potential supported by risk on sentiment amid the lack of economic data at the end of the year," he told VOI, Monday, December 22.

However, Lukman assessed that the positive sentiment was not strong enough to encourage a significant strengthening of the rupiah, because there was still pressure from domestic factors, especially related to the expectation of interest rate cuts by Bank Indonesia.

"The risk on sentiment alone is expected not to support the rupiah much given the domestic negative sentiment from the prospect of BI interest rate cuts," he said.

Meanwhile, money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi explained that the strengthening of the US dollar index was triggered by the US core inflation data, namely the US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November 2025 was recorded at the lowest level since the beginning of 2021.

However, economists warn that the partial shutdown of the US government for 43 days has the potential to affect the accuracy of a number of economic data released.

Ibrahim also said that although inflation is declining and opens up the opportunity for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, market participants are still cautious, because this is due to US employment data which still shows a fairly strong condition.

"The market focus today is on the release of the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), along with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for its latest release," he said in his statement, quoted Monday, December 22.

Ibrahim predicted that the rupiah would move fluctuatio on Monday, December 22 in the price range of IDR 16,750 - IDR 16,780 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, Lukman projected the movement of the rupiah to move in the range of IDR 16,650 per US dollar to IDR 16,750 per US dollar on Monday, December 22.