Rupiah Projected To Strengthen At The Beginning Of The Week Supported By Expectations For Cutting The Fed's Interest Rate

US and Rupiah (intermediate) Dollars

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Monday, December 1, is estimated to have strengthened against the United States (US) dollar.

Citing Bloomberg data, at the end of last week, Friday, November 28, 2025, the rupiah spot exchange rate closed down 0.23 percent to IDR 16,675 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.10 percent to a price level of IDR 16,661 per US dollar.

Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong estimates that the rupiah will strengthen following the weakening of the US dollar, which is influenced by higher expectations of cutting the Fed's interest rate in December 2025.

He added this following news that Powell's position would be replaced by Kevin Hassett who was more dovish.

"The rupiah is expected to strengthen against the US dollar, which is weakening by the Fed's increased interest rate cut expectations in December from the news that Kevin Hassett (who dovish) will replace Powell," he told VOI, Friday, November 28.

Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi explained that a number of US economic data that had been delayed and is now being released showed various conditions.

He added that the data includes September Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) which is stronger than expected, the core producer price index (PPI) that weakened, and long-lasting orders for goods that recorded positive results.

However, Ibrahim added that this picture is contrary to the weakening retail sales and the increasing unemployment rate.

He conveyed that although the economic signal was not uniform, market participants still believed that the Fed would relax its monetary policy at a December meeting.

"The market estimates the probability is around 85 percent for a 25-base point interest rate reduction, according to the CME FedWatch Tool," he said in his statement, quoted Friday, November 28.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate in trading Monday, December 1 in the price range of IDR 16,670 - IDR 16,710 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, Lukman projects that the movement of the rupiah on Monday, December 1, will move in the range of Rp16,600 per US dollar to Rp16,700 per US dollar.