US Employment Data Alert Market, Rupiah Is Predicted To Weaken

US and Rupiah (intermediate) Dollars

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Thursday, November 6, 2025 is predicted to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Wednesday, November 5, the rupiah spot exchange closed lower by 0.05 percent to the level of Rp. 16,717 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.02 percent at a price level of Rp. 16,729 per US dollar.

Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi explained that the strengthening of the US dollar has occurred since last week, after a Federal Reserve (The Fed) statement confirming there is no certainty regarding plans to cut interest rates in December.

"Although the central bank did cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, the move has been widely accounted for, and has not hampered the dollar's strengthening much," he said in a statement, quoted Thursday, November 6.

He added, based on CME FedWatch data, market participants expect a 69.8 percent chance for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, while the remaining 30.2 percent expect interest rates to be maintained.

Meanwhile, Ibrahim said the closure of part of the US federal government has now entered its sixth week and has the potential to be the longest in the country's history.

"The latest attempt to break the deadlock, by passing a temporary Republican-backed law through Congress, failed in the Senate for the 14th time on Tuesday," he said.

According to him, the focus of market attention today is on the US private sector's data (ADP Non-Farm Employment) in October, which is estimated to show an additional 25 thousand jobs, having previously recorded a decline of 32 thousand.

Meanwhile, from within the country, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that Indonesia's economy grew 5.04 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the third quarter of 2025, showing national economic resilience amid global pressures. By quarter-to-quarter (qtq), the economy grew 1.43 percent, while cumulatively (cumulative-to-cumulative/ctc) throughout January September 2025, growth was recorded at 5.01 percent.

Indonesia's economy based on the amount of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Indonesia's economy in the third quarter of 2025 reached IDR 6,060 trillion on the basis of applicable prices, and IDR 3,444.8 trillion on a constant price basis.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading Thursday, November 6, 2025 in the price range of Rp. 16,710 - Rp. 16,760 per US dollar.