JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Wednesday, September 10 is expected to move lower against the United States (US) dollar.
To note, citing Bloomberg, on Tuesday, September 9, the rupiah spot exchange closed lower by 1.05 percent to the level of Rp. 16,482 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.70 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,462 per US dollar.
Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that a number of the latest data showed a sustainable weakening in the US labor market.
"The most prominent is non-farm payroll data, which shows the US barely creates new jobs in August," he said in his statement, quoted Wednesday, September 10.
Ibrahim conveyed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a meeting next week.
He said that market participants estimated the possibility of lowering interest rates by 25 basis points with the probability of reaching 89.4 percent.
"Lower interest rates reduce consumer loan costs and can encourage economic growth," he said.
On the other hand, in recent weeks, a number of Fed officials have signaled that the central bank is open to the possibility of lowering interest rates, especially amid increasing indications of a weakening of the labor market.
However, he said that they remained cautious because inflation was still at a high level, especially in the midst of potential price pressure due to trade rates imposed by US President Donald Trump.
"US inflationary data for August will be released this week, with markets observing a possible increase in inflation as much as Trump's rates came into effect last month," he added.
Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim conveyed that the removal of Sri Mulyani Indrawati as Minister of Finance sparked concerns from global investors over the direction of Indonesian fiscals under President Prabowo Subianto and as his successor was appointed by Purbaya Yudhi Sadivewa.
The news of Sri Mulyani's resignation, has actually blown in recent weeks as political turmoil and public protests over the luxury facilities of lawmakers. In fact, his residence was looted by demonstrators, sparking fears he would resign.
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Ibrahim conveyed that the issue had pushed for the sell of domestic stocks and bonds, before finally easing after Sri Mulyani dismissed rumors in a statement on her personal Instagram account last week. However, his sudden removal on Monday afternoon even further shocked the market.
"Therefore, his departure this time is considered to have the potential to shake the credibility of Indonesia's fiscal policy. The market immediately reacted negatively to the reshuffle, it was proven that foreign capital outflows from stocks reached 254 million US dollars in just the first four days of September, with bonds recording larger sales," he said.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but closed lower in trading on Wednesday, September 10, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,480 - IDR 16,540 per US dollar.
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