President Prabowo's Era RAPBN 2026: A Balance Test Between Ambition And Reality

President Prabowo Subianto. (Photo: ANTARA)

JAKARTA Economic observer from Andalas University, Syafruddin Karimi, assessed that the speech of the Financial Note and Draft Law on State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) for Fiscal Year 2026 which will be delivered by President Prabowo Subianto is not just an annual ritual, but an important momentum to read the direction of the national economy.

He said that in the 2026 RAPBN, it targets growth of 5.2 percent 5.8 percent, with a deficit maintained at 2.53 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"The combination between spending expansion and fiscal discipline reflects the strategy of the middle way: pursuing growth without sacrificing sustainability," he said in his statement, August 15.

He added that the basic assumption of the 2026 RAPBN macro shows the government's efforts to maintain optimism amid global uncertainty.

The inflation is projected to be controlled in the range of 1.5 percent'3.5 percent, the exchange rate is set at Rp16,500's US$16,900 per dollar, and the oil price is in the realistic range of US$60'80 per barrel.

With this basis, the government targets state revenues of IDR 3,0943,114 trillion, up from the 2025 APBN prognosis of IDR 2,865.5 trillion.

Meanwhile, state spending is set at IDR 3,800,820 trillion, an increase quite significantly from 2025 which is only around IDR 3,527.5 trillion.

He conveyed that the increase in spending was directed at infrastructure, food security, energy, and defense.

According to him, this strategy is in line with the view that the Keynesian of public spending can create a multiplier effect on consumption and investment, where the 2026 RAPBN wants to ensure spending is not just a number, but an acceleration of growth.

Expenditure optimism always coexists with the risk of a deficit, where in the 2026 RAPBN it estimates a deficit of IDR 706 trillion.

"Although the nominal is large, the percentage of GDP is lower than 2025 (2.78 percent). This shows that the government is trying to maintain fiscal discipline even though the expansion of spending is carried out," he said.

According to him, the key to spending effectiveness is that if public spending is really productive, then each rupiah will produce higher economic growth than the fiscal burden borne.

However, if shopping is ineffective, it will make the deficit a long-term burden, so that the 2026 RAPBN is a test for the government whether it is able to distinguish between productive spending and political spending.

Furthermore, he said, the balance between income and spending is also a determining factor, where strong income can be loop balancing to reduce deficit pressures.

Tax reform must be a serious agenda so that the revenue target is not just optimism on paper.

Meanwhile, from the external side, the challenges faced are increasingly complex. He conveyed that Donald Trump's return as President of the United States brought aggressive protectionism policies, with the application of tariffs of 19 percent to various imported products.

"This policy is not just an instrument of trade, but a political-economic weapon that rocked the global supply chain. For Indonesia, the impact can be significant: exports will weaken, rupiah will be depressed, and inflation will increase," he explained.

The 2026 RAPBN, which was designed before Trump's tariff policy took full effect, could face heavy pressure if macro assumptions were disrupted, where the business world was forced to adapt faster, look for alternative markets, and increase import substitution.

Syafruddin said that the government also needs to strengthen fiscal incentives and export diversification strategies so that competitiveness is maintained.

"Fiscal coordination of moneters is an absolute requirement. The Ministry of Finance must ensure productive spending and a strong tax base, while Bank Indonesia maintains stability of the rupiah, liquidity, and inflation. Without synergy, the state budget will be fragile in dealing with external shocks," he said.

Syafruddin emphasized that the APBN should not be seen merely as an annual administrative document, but the APBN is a road map for the national economy.

In the 2026 RAPBN, the policy direction must be clearly seen, namely expansion of spending to support growth, and discipline of deficits in order to maintain fiscal sustainability.

The real challenge is not in policy design, but in implementation.

"How effective is the government closing the tax gap? How strong is fiscal and monetary coordination dealing with Trump's tariffs and global uncertainty? These questions will determine whether the 2026 RAPBN is really a development instrument or just an annual routine," he said.

He conveyed that the 2026 RAPBN in the era of President Prabowo implies optimism that should be appreciated from high growth targets, low inflation, stable exchange rates, to controlled deficits. However, this optimism must be accompanied by realism in implementation.

"Trump's fare show reminds the outside world to quickly shake up domestic macro assumptions," he said.

Syafruddin said that the 2026 State Budget is a balance test if revenue, spending, and growth move harmoniously, then Indonesia can take advantage of global momentum with confidence.

"But if spending is not productive and income weakens, the deficit could turn into a time bomb," he said.

According to him, optimism is important, but fiscal realism and discipline remain the main foundation.

"Only with the combination of the two, the Prabowo era APBN can become a sustainable development instrument, not just a number note on paper," he concluded.