Rupiah Predicted Weakening To Rp16,560 Per US Dollar

US and Rupiah dollars (Photo: dock. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Monday, August 4 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Friday, August 1, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.35 percent to the level of Rp. 16,513 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed lower by 0.21 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,494 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi explained that the market responded negatively to the release of the latest data regarding the productivity of Indonesia's manufacturing sector which again showed contraction. This is reflected in the report of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in Indonesia which was at the level of 49.2 in July 2025, still below the threshold for expansion of 50.

"July's performance has indeed increased from the previous month which was at 46.9 and 47.4 levels in May 2025. In the latest S&P Global report, this contraction trend has continued since April 2025 which dropped to 46.7," he said in his statement, quoted Monday, August 4.

Ibrahim added that the contraction that lasted over the past four months reflected a decline in production output and a weakening of new demand.

In addition, he said that export demand also continued to decline, while companies began to make efficiency, including reduced labor and limiting purchases.

"Not only demand and production pressure, but manufacturers also say that price pressure has intensified since the beginning of the 2025 semester. Inflation costs are up to a record high in four months amid rising raw material prices and exchange rate fluctuations," he explained.

Part of the increase in costs, continued Ibrahim, has begun to be borne by consumers, although the level of cost inflation in general is still moderate.

According to Ibrahim, the current situation has also led to a decline in the confidence of business actors and optimism for the upcoming year's business outlook to decline sharply in July, with confidence levels at their lowest since the survey was conducted.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading Monday, August 4, 2025, in the price range of Rp. 16,510 - Rp. 16,560 per US dollar.