JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Tuesday, July 29 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.
To note, citing Bloomberg, on Monday, July 28, the rupiah spot exchange rate closed down 0.27 percent to the level of Rp. 16,364 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed lower by 0.09 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,341 per US dollar.
Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said the market responded positively, after an US-EU framework deal that included a 15 percent tariff for EU goods entering the US, down from the 30 percent initially proposed.
"Meanwhile, top US and Chinese officials are scheduled to meet in Stockholm on Monday to resolve trade tensions and reportedly seek an extension of their three-month tariff ceasefire," he said in a statement, quoted Tuesday, July 29.
In addition, according to a South China Morning Post report, both sides wanted to extend the tariff ceasefire before it ended on August 12, without plans to impose new duties or increase tensions.
On the other hand, Ibrahim said the market is currently awaiting the Fed's monetary policy decision to be announced on Wednesday (Thursday morning WIB), and the market generally estimates interest rates will remain stable between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent, the probability of showing a 96 percent chance the Fed will maintain interest rates and 4 percent the Fed will decline interest rates by 25 basis points.
"Most of the projections lead to that lower interest rates will be carried out as early as the meeting in September," he said.
According to him, the market will also closely monitor the FOMC press conference to get some clues about the schedule for lowering interest rates this year.
Meanwhile, most Fed officials seem to prefer to continue waiting and seeing how tariffs will affect the economy before they cut.
Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that the national poverty rate had decreased to its lowest level in two decades. It was noted that Indonesia's poverty reached 23.85 million people as of March 2025.
However, behind this achievement, the poverty rate in urban areas actually increased from 6.66 percent in September 2024 to 6.73 percent in March 2025.
On the other hand, rural poverty was 11.03 percent, a decrease compared to September 2024 which was 11.34 percent. Despite the amount, poverty in rural areas is still higher than urban areas.
There are several things that cause the phenomenon of the poverty rate in urban areas to increase. The cause of this increase is the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) of men in cities which increased from 5.87 percent to 6.06 percent.
SEE ALSO:
On the other hand, the Indonesian labor market faced a difficult shock in the first half of this year. The wave of Termination of Work Relations (PHK) was observed to soar more than 30 percent, the highest in Central Java.
Based on data from the Ministry of Manpower's Satudata, from January to June 2025, there were 42,385 workers who experienced layoffs. This figure jumped 32.19 percent compared to the same period last year which was 32,064 people. It was recorded that Central Java was the province with the highest layoffs during the first semester reaching 10,995 people, West Java 9,494 people, Banten 4,267 people and DKI Jakarta 2,821 people.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading on Tuesday, July 29, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,350 - IDR 16,410 per US dollar.
The English, Chinese, Japanese, Arabic, and French versions are automatically generated by the AI. So there may still be inaccuracies in translating, please always see Indonesian as our main language. (system supported by DigitalSiber.id)
