BI Estimates Rupiah To Be In The Range Of Rp. 16,000-Rp. 16,500 Per US Dollar In 2026

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - Bank Indonesia (BI) predicts the average rupiah exchange rate against the United States (US) dollar, in 2026 it will be in the range of Rp. 16,000 to Rp. 16,500 per US dollar.

BI Governor Perry Warjiyo in a Working Meeting (Raker) with Commission XI of the DPR RI in Jakarta, Thursday, July 3, conveyed the central bank's commitment to continue to strengthen and maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate in the future.

"Our foreign exchange reserves are quite large, 152.5 billion US dollars (May 2025), and in the future we are committed to maintaining this rupiah exchange rate," Perry said, quoted by Antara.

He added that various fundamental factors will bring the rupiah exchange rate to strengthening for next year. This fundamental factor includes the prospects for Indonesia's economic growth which are quite good, relatively low inflation, as well as the returns from investment in Indonesia, including quite attractive Government Securities (SBN).

Perry also emphasized the central bank's commitment to continue to maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate, either through intervention in the non-delivery forward (NDF) offshore market or intervention in the domestic non-delivery forward (DNDF) and in the domestic market.

"At that time (post the announcement of the US tariff policy) on April 8 (when the domestic market opened after the Lebaran holiday) the rupiah had reached 16,865 per US dollar, now on June 30 it rose to 16,235 US dollars," he said.

In addition to the strengthening rupiah, Perry also noted that so far the external resilience of the Indonesian economy has been relatively maintained. The trade balance surplus has remained large, mainly supported by exports of non-oil and gas commodities.

In terms of balance sheet and capital, the impact of global conditions can be seen on the inflow of portfolio investments. In the second quarter of 2025, there was an outflow in portfolio investment of around US$2.4 billion, after recording a net inflow of US$0.3 billion in the first quarter of 2025.

"But lately there has been a reversal of the portfolio flow to Indonesia, especially in SBN," he said.

Perry reminded the need to strengthen measures to encourage foreign capital inflows, especially in foreign investment, both through improving the investment climate and withdrawing foreign investment into Indonesia. This is not only to strengthen external resilience but also to encourage growth.

Regarding inflation, Bank Indonesia predicts that inflation will be maintained in the target range of 2.5 plus minus 1 percent or the range of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent in 2026.

"We have also monitored various steps at BI representative offices, 46 of our offices were also deployed to control inflation including in coordination with the government in the Central and Regional Inflation Control Team (TPIP/TPID), including the National Food Inflation Control Movement (GNPIP)," Perry said.