JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Friday, May 16, is expected to move higher against the United States (US) dollar.
To note, citing Bloomberg, on Thursday, May 15, the rupiah spot exchange closed up 0.20 percent to the level of IDR 16,529 per US dollar.
Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed higher by 0.19 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,535 per US dollar.
Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi expressed joy at the US-Chingkok trade deal also seemed to subside, considering the countries drastically reduced their trade rates against each other.
"The market is now awaiting further tariff withdrawals between the economy giants, while US trade talks with other countries are also the focus for more positive signaling," he said in a statement, quoted Friday, May 16.
The focus is now focused on a series of upcoming US economic readings, as well as Powell's speech from the Fed, for further signaling about the world's largest economy.
Ibrahim added that producer price index inflation data for April emerged just days after reading a lower-than-expected consumer price index.
According to him, the continued decline in inflation is expected to increase the stakes on this year's Fed rate cuts.
Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that the Indonesian economy appears to be experiencing failure.
This can be seen from the various existing data, such as some of them are the real sales index (IPR) and the consumer confidence index (IKK).
The latest data from Bank Indonesia (BI) shows that the Real Sales Index (IPR) only grew 5.5 percent on an annual basis in March 2025.
This figure is lower than March 2024 which reached 9.3 percent.
Meanwhile, IPR in April 2025 is predicted to be only 231.1 or contract 2.2 percent on an annual basis.
Meanwhile, IKK in March 2025 was at the 121.1 level, showing a decrease compared to the previous month, which was at the level of 126.4. For April 2025, IKK showed a slight strengthening to the 121.7 level.
Ibrahim said that therefore, it is not surprising that the level of consumption and enthusiasm of the Indonesian people economically during this year's Eid is not as big as Eid in previous years.
"This condition cannot be separated from the reality of the absence of significance of an increase in people's income," he explained.
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According to him, as an anticipatory measure so that the decline in consumption levels does not get worse, the need for intervention policies such as social assistance (bansos) that are right on target is distributed to low-income people.
As for the middle class, the creation of a new industry is a solution.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher in trading Friday, May 16, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,470-IDR 16,530 per US dollar.
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