JAKARTA - Airlangga University (Unair) economist Wisnu Wibowo said that the heating of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the tension between Iran and the US-Israel, which led to the restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, began to have an impact on the global oil price spike. This condition encourages the adjustment of the price of non-subsidized fuel oil (BBM) in Indonesia gradually.
"The increase in the price of non-subsidized fuel is considered a logical consequence because the determination scheme follows the international market price," said Wisnu Wibowo when contacted, Sunday, March 29.
As is known, in the period from February to March 2026, a number of non-subsidized fuel products in the country have increased. Pertamax increased from Rp11,800 to Rp12,300 per liter, Pertamax Green (RON 95) from Rp12,450 to Rp12,900, and Pertamax Turbo from Rp12,700 to Rp13,100 per liter.
For non-subsidized solar types, the price of Dexlite increased from Rp13,250 to Rp14,200 per liter and Pertamina Dex from Rp13,500 to Rp14,500 per liter. Meanwhile, subsidized fuels such as Pertalite and Solar are still held at Rp10,000 and Rp6,800 per liter respectively.
Wisnu also explained that the increase in non-subsidized fuel was still within a moderate range, namely in the range of 5-10 percent. "I predict that the increase in non-subsidized fuel will still be below 10 percent, around 5 to 10 percent," he said.
Wisnu explained that the mechanism for determining the price of non-subsidized fuel was adjusted periodically in accordance with the trend in world oil prices, especially the reference Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) and Argus which are independent institutions that also determine global commodity prices.
In addition, the adjustment also refers to the formula in the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 245.K/MG.01/MEM.M/2022 which considers the reference price, the rupiah exchange rate, and the tax component. "The reference price and exchange rate variables are very dynamic, so it is reasonable if there is a price adjustment at the retail level," he explained.
Wisnu added that business entities also have the authority to determine the retail selling price of non-subsidized fuel with the government still reporting. This makes the price more reflective of market conditions while encouraging more rational energy consumption behavior, especially for the middle class.
On the other hand, the surge in world oil prices which have broken above 100 US dollars per barrel also put pressure on the country's finances. Every increase of 1 US dollar in the price of oil has the potential to add to the state budget by up to Rp6.7 trillion.
However, the government is not expected to rush to raise fuel prices widely, especially those subsidized. The policy of adjusting prices is still the last option that will be taken if the fiscal pressure is getting heavier.
As is known, a number of countries in the Southeast Asian region have started to increase fuel prices since the end of February 2026. Countries with full market mechanisms such as Thailand and Vietnam have experienced a sharper price spike, especially in the type of solar that is directly related to the logistics and industrial sectors.
Meanwhile, countries that still provide large subsidies such as Malaysia are relatively able to hold back rising prices. On the other hand, Singapore recorded the highest fuel prices in the region because it did not implement subsidies and imposed high energy taxes.
This comparison shows that Indonesia is in a relatively stable position amid global pressures. The increase in non-subsidized fuel prices is still considered moderate, while subsidized fuel, especially solar, remains the main cushion in maintaining purchasing power and domestic economic stability.
The following is a comparison of fuel prices in ASEAN since the Strait of Hormuz crisis in March 2026:
1. Indonesia (Pertamina) RON 92: Rp12.300 RON 95: Rp12.900 RON 98: Rp13.100
Subsidized solar: Rp6.800 Dexlite (non-subsidized): Rp14.200 Pertamina Dex: Rp14.500
2. Malaysia RON 95: ± Rp8.500 - Rp11.400 RON 97: ± Rp13.000
Solar (diesel): ± Rp10.000 – Rp11.500
3. Singapore RON 95: ± Rp45.000 RON 98: Rp52.000 - Rp55.000
Solar (diesel): ± Rp45.000 – Rp47.000
4. Thailand RON 92: ± Rp23.000 RON 95: ± Rp23.000 - Rp24.000
Solar (diesel): ± Rp17.000
5. Vietnam RON 92: ± Rp22.000 – Rp25.000 RON 95: ± Rp25.000+
Solar (diesel): ± Rp20.000 – Rp21.000+
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