JAKARTA - Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that Indonesia's economy is currently in a strong expansion phase.
According to him, this condition makes Indonesia quite ready to face the impact of global economic turmoil, including conflicts involving the United States and Israel against Iran.
"Don't be afraid, we can control the negative impact well in the future because our position is from a strong position," he said in a KiTA State Budget press conference, Wednesday, March 11.
Purbaya also conveyed that domestic macroeconomic stability remained maintained even though global geopolitical tensions increased.
He estimated that Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 could be in the range of 5.5 percent to 6 percent, higher than the growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 which was recorded at 5.39 percent.
"The growth (economy) last quarter was 5.39 percent and this quarter should grow faster. I always say between 5.5 percent to 6 percent may still be achievable," he said.
According to him, the trend of improving economic growth shows that economic activity is still on a positive track.
He added that the economic performance was also reflected in the increase in the Manufacturing PMI which reached 53.8 in February 2026, the highest level in the last two years.
In addition, from the external side, Indonesia's economic resilience is considered to remain strong with a trade balance surplus that has lasted for 69 consecutive months, as well as foreign exchange reserves at a safe level of US$152 billion.
Purbaya added that economic activity began to strengthen again since the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025 and the trend continued until 2026.
"This strengthens people's optimism and supports economic growth," he said.
In addition, he said that people's purchasing power is said to continue to improve ahead of the Eid al-Fitr celebration, and this can be seen from the increase in the Mandiri Spending Index which reached 360.7 in February 2026, especially driven by increased consumption of people's basic needs, the education sector, and mobility.
He also noted that retail sales showed a positive trend as well as the consumer confidence index remained at a high level, and these conditions indicated that household consumption was still strong and people's expectations for economic conditions remained optimistic.
"You see again good purchasing power indicators, among others, from the automotive industry which continues the positive trend with car sales growing double digits of 12.2 percent in February 2026. Meanwhile, motorcycle sales remain stable at 1 percent," he said.
He assessed that this development was a signal of a real improvement in people's purchasing power and hoped that the trend would continue in the future.
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