JAKARTA - Community consumption levels show improvement at the end of 2025, in line with the increase in shopping activity during the Christmas and New Year (Nataru) momentum.
This condition is expected to continue in early 2026, with the support of various government programs and stimulus, as well as the seasonal boost of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr in Quarter I 2026 which has historically strengthened domestic demand.
The persistence of public consumption is reflected in the national inflation data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) which recorded that the inflation rate remained under control at 2.92 percent on an annual basis (year on year/yoy) in December 2025.
The achievement is still within the range of the government's inflation target in 2025, namely 1.5-3.5 percent, which reflects price stability in the midst of ongoing economic activity.
More specifically, in December 2025, inflation was recorded at 0.64 percent on a monthly basis (month on month/mom) and historically, inflation tends to increase in the last period of the year, in line with the increase in public demand influenced by the momentum of the Nataru celebration.
"This increase reflects the strengthening of public consumption at the end of the year," said Bank Mandiri's Chief Economist, Andry Asmoro, in a statement, Thursday, January 15.
Andry said that people's purchasing power was also observed to have strengthened, reflected in the movement of the core inflation rate.
In December 2025, core inflation was recorded to have increased by 0.20 percent (mom), higher than the previous month of 0.17 percent (mom).
According to him, this core inflation generally reflects the relatively more stable and sustainable domestic demand dynamics.
Andry explained that the increase in core inflation was supported by the strengthening of domestic consumption at the end of 2025 and on the other hand, the increase in gold prices also contributed to the movement of core inflation in that period.
"Consumption activity remained solid in December, reflected by an increase in the Mandiri Spending Index (MSI) of 17 percent on a monthly basis," said Andry.
Meanwhile, the government-regulated inflation component (administered prices) in December 2025 was recorded at 0.37 percent (mom), an increase from the previous month of 0.24 percent (mom).
Andry said this increase was mainly influenced by adjustments to air ticket and fuel prices during the Nataru holiday period.
He added that overall, the latest data released by BPS showed the performance of the national economy in terms of community consumption was still in a positive trend, with price stability maintained amid seasonal demand dynamics.
According to him, this condition emphasizes the role of domestic consumption as the main support for national economic growth.
"Entering 2026, inflationary pressures are expected to remain within a controlled range at the beginning of the year, supported by relatively conducive food supply conditions. This stability also provides room for public consumption to continue to grow more measured and sustainable," said Andry.
He added that inflation was maintained and domestic consumption was strengthened, also in line with Bank Mandiri's achievements through solid intermediation performance.
Andry explained that this was reflected in the growth in credit distribution of 13.1 percent year-on-year to Rp1,452 trillion based on Bank Mandiri's financial statements (bank only) as of the end of November 2025.
He added that this performance was supported by managed liquidity and maintained asset quality, as well as emphasizing the role of Bank Mandiri as a strategic partner of the government in optimizing the ecosystem of transaction and financing services to provide added value and encourage acceleration of more productive, superior and sustainable economic growth.
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