Ahead of 2026 New Year, the Rupiah Strengthens despite the Risk of Pressure Still Lurking

Rupiah and US Dollar (Photo: Antara)

JAKARTA - Ahead of the 2026 New Year holidays, the rupiah exchange rate in Monday, December 29, 2025 trading was recorded as strengthening against the US dollar.

In the spot market, the movement of the rupiah was observed to be stable with a tendency to strengthen, namely at the beginning of trading on Monday, December 29, the rupiah opened at the level of Rp16,740 per US dollar, strengthening slightly by 0.06 percent compared to the closing of Friday, December 26, which was at the position of Rp16,745 per US dollar.

To note, quoting Bloomberg, on Friday, December 26, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed down 0.02 percent to Rp16,745 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, December 24, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed up 0.14 percent at a price level of Rp16,767 per US dollar.

Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong reminded that the rupiah still has the potential to experience pressure against the US dollar.

He assessed that the prospect of the government's fiscal easing policy and Bank Indonesia could be a burden factor for the rupiah.

"The rupiah is expected to still have the potential to weaken against the US dollar, burdened by the prospect of government and BI easing policies," he told VOI, Monday, December 29.

In addition, he added that the volatility of the rupiah is expected to increase as trade conditions tend to be quiet at the end of the year.

"The rupiah is also expected to be volatile in the quiet trade at the end of the year," he explained.

Meanwhile, money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi, said that the weakening of the rupiah was influenced by the increasing global geopolitical tensions, one of the main factors was the re-escalation of relations between the United States and Venezuela, which also shook the stability of the international financial market.

"Washington's increasingly harsh actions against the shipment of Venezuelan oil and Caracas' response have raised concerns about regional stability and global supply risks," he said in a statement, quoted on Monday, December 29.

In addition to geopolitical factors, he added that expectations for easing monetary policy in the United States also put pressure on the market and market participants are still taking into account the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, even though a number of US economic data show stronger performance than expected.

He added that according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, annual economic growth was 4.3 percent in the third quarter, surpassing the market projection of 3.3 percent and the previous estimate of 3.8 percent.

On the other hand, Ibrahim said that durable goods orders fell 2.2 percent in October, reversing from an increase of 0.7 percent in the previous month and orders outside the defense sector shrank 1.5 percent, while durable goods orders outside transportation still recorded a slight increase of 0.2 percent.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will move fluctuatio but within the price range of Rp16,760 - Rp16,790 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, Lukman projected the movement of the rupiah to move in the range of IDR 16,700 per US dollar to IDR 16,800 per US dollar on Monday, December 29.