Indonesia's Economic Growth Is Estimated To Strengthen In The Fourth Quarter Of 2025, BI Boss Reveals Driven By Fiscal Stimulus

Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI) Perry Warjiyo. (Photo: Doc. ANTARA)

JAKARTA - Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo estimates that Indonesia's economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be higher than the realization in the third quarter of 2025 which grew by 5.04 percent.

"We estimate that in the fourth quarter, economic growth will be higher," he said during a working meeting with Commission XI of the DPR, Wednesday, November 12.

According to Perry, this estimate is based on various fiscal stimulus programs launched by the government towards the end of the year, including economic stimulus packages worth IDR 46.23 trillion.

Meanwhile, the stimulus includes an 8+4+5 economic policy package with a total budget of IDR 16.23 trillion, plus an additional stimulus of IDR 30 trillion.

In addition, he conveyed that the government also continues to carry out a number of national priority projects to encourage economic growth to remain in line with the 2025 target in the range of 5.2 percent.

"In line with the faster expansion of fiscal stimulus and also the running of government projects including the 2025 government economic policy package, including social assistance which will be distributed in the fourth quarter of 2025," he said.

Until the end of 2025, he said that Bank Indonesia estimates that national economic growth will be in the range of 5.1 percent, or at the center of the projected 4.7'5.5 percent.

"Overall, we estimate that economic growth in 2025 will be in the range of 4.7 to 5.51 percent and that's all the midpoint is slightly above the midpoint of 5.1 percent and will increase in 2026," he explained.

Perry juga menyampaikan kinerja ekonomi domestik hingga triwulan III menunjukkan hasil yang positif dimana pertumbuhan ini ditopang oleh peningkatan ekspor, konsumsi, dan investasi dalam negeri.

"Pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional sampai dengan triwulan III dan juga triwulan IV ini berjalan baik. Satu karena memang ada pola ekspor yang tumbuh lebih cepat karena kecenderungan para eksportir mengekspor terutama ke Amerika lebih cepat istilahnya adalah front loading sebelum implementasi tarif dan juga masih cukup kuatnya investasi dan konsumsi di dalam negeri meskipun memang harus kita terus dorong," ucapnya.

Adapun pada kuartal III-2025, ekonomi Indonesia tumbuh 5,04 persen, dimana dari sisi pengeluaran, pertumbuhan tersebut ditopang oleh kinerja ekspor yang naik 9,91 persen, konsumsi rumah tangga sebesar 4,89 persen, dan investasi yang meningkat 5,04 persen.

Perry also conveyed that the performance of the domestic economy until the third quarter showed positive results where this growth was supported by increased exports, consumption, and domestic investment.

"The growth of the national economy up to the third quarter and also in the fourth quarter is going well. One is because there is an export pattern that grows faster because the tendency of exporters to export, especially to America, the term is front loading before the implementation of tariffs and also still strong investment and consumption in the country, although we must continue to encourage it," he said.

As for the third quarter of 2025, Indonesia's economy grew 5.04 percent, where in terms of expenditure, this growth was supported by export performance which rose 9.91 percent, household consumption by 4.89 percent, and investment increased by 5.04 percent.