JAKARTA - Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede estimates that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 will only reach around 5.04 percent (year-on-year), slightly slower than the previous quarter which grew 5.12 percent (yoy).
He added that economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 was mainly supported by two main components, namely household spending of 4.94 percent and investment (PMTB) of around 4.96 percent, while government consumption is expected to return to positive growth after the previous two quarters experienced contraction.
In terms of household spending, growth is supported by relatively stable price conditions so that people's purchasing power is maintained. In September 2025, general inflation was recorded at 2.65 percent (yoy) and core inflation at 2.19 percent (yoy), even the energy component experienced annual deflation.
"This means that the cost of basic necessities does not increase and the space for non-pook consumption remains," he said in his statement, Tuesday, November 4.
In addition, the performance of the rural sector also shows improvements where the Farmer's Exchange Rate (NTP) rose 3.37 percent (yoy), an increase from 2.48 percent (yoy) in the second quarter of 2025, while the farmers' household consumption index was also slightly strengthened. This indicates that village income remains stable.
According to Josua, it is this combination of controlled prices and stable income that keeps the daily shopping round.
"At the same time, economic liquidity is boosted by monetary easing and the placement of government funds in banks, which is reflected in the increase in money in circulation and the decrease in the interest rate of the money market," he explained.
He added that for investment, the prospect is considered quite positive, namely growth in building investment supported by infrastructure projects and various government priority programs, including housing and MBG programs, which encourage construction activities.
On the other hand, Josua added that non-development investment was also driven by increased orders in the manufacturing sector, as reflected in the PMI index which is still in the expansion zone indicating increased production and demand for industrial machinery and equipment.
"In banking, after the precautionary period in the third quarter, the standard for lending is estimated to loosen in the fourth quarter to support investment financing towards the end of the year," he said.
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Josua stated that overall, the combination of accommodative monetary policy, additional liquidity from the government, as well as sustainable manufacturing activities, made PMTB survive in the range of 4.96 percent.
Meanwhile, he added that government consumption showed improvement with growth estimated at 4.06 percent (yoy), higher than the previous two quarters.
"Although the realization of central spending until September 30 is only around 60 percent of the target, while the realization of capital expenditures is only about half of the ceiling, the realization of regional government spending shows a significant increase in the third quarter of 2025," he said.
From the external side, net exports are also expected to increase again compared to the previous quarter, namely by intensifying non-oil and gas exports in the third quarter of 2025, growing 10.7 percent (yoy), while non-oil and gas imports experienced a slight contraction of 0.8 percent (yoy).
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