Nickel Production Increases, Vale Stock Projection Analyst Can Reach IDR 4,700

Illustration: Photo: Doc. ANTARA

JAKARTA - PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) issuer from Holding Indonesia Mining Industry MIND ID, became the main preferred stock in the metal sector.

INCO has a strong operational performance fundamental and is supported by the prospect of good mining industry growth.

As for the annual basis, the issuer of MIND ID members recorded an increase in production volume in the second quarter of 2025 by 12 percent, underlining the Company's consistent operational performance.

Production for the first half of 2025 was 2 percent higher than the same period in 2024, supported by the Company's proactive maintenance strategy and other operational improvements implemented throughout the first half.

Vale Indonesia is targeting a total production of around 71,234 metric tons of nickel infuriated by 2025, which shows an increase from last year's target.

In the second quarter of 2025, nickel shipments fighting Vale Indonesia also increased to 18,023 tons, compared to 17,096 tons in the first quarter of 2025.

For information, the average realization price of nickelcurrency in the second quarter of 2025 reached 12,091 US dollars per ton, slightly increasing from 11,932 dollars in the previous quarter.

The moderate price increase, combined with higher shipping volume, contributed to an increase in total revenue, reaching 220.2 million US dollars, an increase of 7 percent from 206.5 million US dollars in the previous quarter.

PT Vale managed to maintain EBITDA at a healthy level of US$40.0 million with a positive net profit of US$3.5 million for the quarter and is expected to optimize production levels for the second half of this year.

BRI analyst Danareksa Sekuritas Erindra Krisnawan and Wilastita Muthia Sofi, in a study published on September 2, 2025, said that although the domestic stock market was under pressure by the outflow of foreign funds, the relatively cheap index valuation was considered to provide a positive cushion.

Moreover, this issuer believes that profit growth will be more solid, supported by the acceleration of government spending and increasing liquidity.

Berdasarkan laporan tersebut, logam diposisikan sebagai salah satu sektor unggulan.

Hal ini karena karakteristiknya yang mampu menjadi hedge atau lindung nilai terhadap volatilitas pasar, terutama di tengah katalis domestik yang belum sepenuhnya menguat.

BRI Danareksa lantas memberikan rekomendasi beli untuk saham INCO dengan target harga Rp4.700 per saham.

Artinya, estimasi tersebut mencerminkan pertumbuhan sebesar 19,29 persen dari harga saat ini yang berada di level Rp3.940 hingga Rabu 3 September.

Banderol ini mencerminkan kenaikan 8,84 persen sejak awal tahun (year to date) dan menguat 11,93 persen dalam 3 bulan terakhir.

Adapun kapitalisasi pasar INCO mencapai Rp41,53 triliun.

Salah satu katalis positif INCO datang dari Danantara Indonesia yang tengah memacu pengembangan proyek nikel di Indonesia melalui kesepakatan kerja sama antara Danantara Investment Management dengan GEM Limited, perusahaan publik asal China.

Kesepakatan tersebut menjadi kerangka kerja bagi potensi investasi bersama dalam pembangunan fasilitas peleburan High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) berkapasitas 66.000 ton nikel dalam endapan hidroksida campuran (MHP) per tahun. Proyek dengan nilai investasi 1,42 miliar dolar AS ini bakal melibatkan INCO dengan mitra global lainnya.

Research Retail Analyst CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia Sharon Natasha menyampaikan, selain dipicu oleh aksi Danantara, sentimen positif INCO juga datang dari persetujuan Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Biaya (RKAB).

Persetujuan itu memungkinkan perseroan untuk menjual 2,2 juta ton bijih saprolite dari tambang Bahodopi, Sulawesi Tengah, mulai Juli 2025.

Aksi tersebut juga diproyeksikan mendorong kinerja keuangan perseroan pada semester II/2025.

“Artinya, ini ada potensi untuk kinerja INCO terdongkrak pada semester II/2025 karena didukung dari sisi penjualan bijih saprolite,” pungkas Sharon.

Based on the report, metal is positioned as one of the leading sectors.

This is because its characteristics are able to become a hedge or hedge against market volatility, especially in the midst of domestic catalysts that have not fully strengthened.

BRI Danareksa then gave a recommendation to buy for INCO shares with a target price of IDR 4,700 per share.

This means that this estimate reflects the growth of 19.29 percent of the current price which is at the level of IDR 3,940 until Wednesday, September 3.

Banderol this reflects an 8.84 percent increase since the beginning of the year (year to date) and rose 11.93 percent in the last 3 months.

INCO's market capitalization reached IDR 41.53 trillion.

One of the positive INCO catalysts came from Danantara Indonesia, which is spurring the development of nickel projects in Indonesia through a cooperation agreement between Danantara Investment Management and GEM Limited, a public company from China.

The agreement is a framework for the potential for joint investment in the construction of the High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) fusion facility with a capacity of 66,000 tons of nickel in mixed hydroxide deposits (MHP) per year. The project with an investment value of 1.42 billion US dollars will involve INCO with other global partners.

Research Retail Analyst CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia Sharon Natasha said that apart from being triggered by the Danantara action, positive INCO sentiment also came from the approval of the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB).

The approval allows the company to sell 2.2 million tons of saprolite ore from the Bahodopi mine, Central Sulawesi, starting July 2025.

The action is also projected to boost the company's financial performance in the second semester of 2025.

"This means that there is potential for INCO's performance to be boosted in the second semester of 2025 because it is supported in terms of sales of saprolite ore," concluded Sharon.