Rupiah Potentially Strengthens To Level IDR 16,420 Per US Dollar

US and Rupiah dollars (Photo: dock. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Thursday, September 4 is expected to move higher against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Wednesday, September 3, the rupiah spot exchange closed slightly lower by 0.01 percent to the level of Rp. 16,416 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.04 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,424 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that the US appeals court ruled that most of President Donald Trump's trade rates were illegal, and could only keep him until mid-October.

"Trump criticized the ruling and said it would appeal to the Supreme Court. However, a further ruling opposing Trump's rates could force Washington to renegotiate recent trade deals, signaling more disruption in global trade," he said in a statement, quoted Thursday, September 4.

Ibrahim said the data is likely to be a factor in the Federal Reserve's plan to cut interest rates and is expected to have more than 90 percent chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by the end of this month.

"Increasing speculations of lower interest rates have also pushed the metal market in recent weeks," he said.

On the other hand, the focus of market players is also on the potential bilateral trade negotiations between India and the US, after Washington charged the South Asian nation 50 percent of the purchase of Russian oil.

"The US surveillance invites European sanctions against India's main oil refinery, which could further disrupt global supplies. Saudi Arabia and Iraq are seen stopping oil shipments to Indian oil refineries," he added.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that Bank Indonesia (BI) is optimistic that 5.4 percent economic growth as stated in the macro assumption in the 2026 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget Draft (RAPBN) can be achieved with the synergy of government and central banks policies.

BI itself predicts that the Indonesian economy in 2026 will grow in the range of 4.7 percent to 5.5 percent. Based on central bank calculations, coupled with the trend of decreasing the benchmark interest rate (BI-Rate), the trend in economic growth next year will reach 5.3 percent.

Even so, the central bank is optimistic that economic growth can reach 5.4 percent in 2026 because it is supported by fiscal policy and considers various policies or programs run by the government to encourage the real sector.

Therefore, with export support and also increasing sectors in the country, both for trade, transportation, and services, as well as the food-drinking industry as well as other sectors, economic activity is increasingly stretched and can support economic growth.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher in trading Thursday, September 4, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,380 - IDR 16,420 per US dollar.