JCI Potentially Reaches 8,000, Supported By Optimism Of Foreign Interest Rates And Net Buys

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT) projects that the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) has the potential to strengthen to the level of 8,000 in the coming week.

Retail Equity Analytics IPOT Indri Liftiany Travelin Yunus explained that this projection was supported by market optimism following Bank Indonesia's cut in interest rates and the prospect of lowering interest rates by the Fed in the United States.

In addition, the strengthening of the JCI was also supported by net buys by foreign investors amounting to IDR 2.6 trillion, although last week the JCI had weakened slightly by 0.50 percent.

However, Indo Premier Sekuritas assesses that the JCI is still healthy because of its position which is close to the highest level of all time (All Time High).

Indri explained that over the past week only two sectors experienced weakness, while other sectors recorded strengthening, namely the infrastructure sector to become the weakest with a decrease of 1.79 percent, while the industrial sector recorded the highest strengthening of 4.68 percent, mainly supported by the increase in the price of ASII shares, which has a large weight in the JCI.

"The increase in ASII's shares is due to market optimism for a strategic review plan which includes a potentially large asset acquisition and divestment strategy that has an impact on the large dividend distribution," he said in his statement, Monday, August 25.

He explained that there were four main sentiments that influenced market movements during last week, namely first, cutting the benchmark interest rate by Bank Indonesia by 25 basis points to 5 percent. This decision is beyond consensus expectations which estimate the interest rate to remain at 5.25 percent.

Second, the minutes of the FOMC (FOMC Minutes) meeting show the hawkish stance of most Fed officials, which assesses inflation is still a major risk, reducing market confidence in cutting interest rates in September.

The level of confidence in cutting the benchmark interest rate in September fell from 82.4 percent to 75.3 percent, according to the FedWatch Tool CME Group.

Third, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement hinting at the possibility of cutting interest rates began in September due to the weakening of the US economy and the increasing risk to the labor market. As well as the market, it even estimates two cuts by the end of the year.

Fourth, rebalancing the FTSE index on August 22, 2025 and effective on September 22, 2025, where at Large Cap In: DSSA, Mid Cap Out: BDMN and Micro Cap In: TEN, MIDI, BCAP, MLIA, MLBA, CNMA, CLEO, ULTJ and Out: BEST, TEBE, PSSI, MTMH, KKGI, SMBR, UCID.

Seeing the market potential this week, Indri said there are three main data from the United States that will be of concern to market players, namely first, the United States Consumer Confidence in August which is expected to rise slightly to the 98 level from the previous 97.2.

Second, the US's Initial Jobless Claims in the 3rd week of August which will slightly rise to the level of 236,000 from previously at the level of 235,000 and third, the Core PCE Price Index of the United States in July which has the potential to remain at the level of 0.3 percent.