Waiting For Donald Trump's Decision, Rupiah Is Predicted To Be Less Than IDR 16,420 Per US Dollar

US and Rupiah dollars (Photo: dock. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Thursday, August 7 is expected to move higher against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Wednesday, August 6, the rupiah spot exchange closed up 0.17 percent to the level of Rp. 16,362 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed up 0.05 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,379 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that US purchase manager index (PMI) data fell to 50.1 in July, below 51.5 forecasts, marking the near cessation of service activity and exacerbating concerns about the slowdown in US economic growth.

"This comes after a weak US payroll report on Friday, which showed fewer new job opportunities and widespread revisions, pushed the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent. The Fed's interest rate reduction opportunities for September rose to 87 percent on Wednesday," he said in his statement, quoted Thursday, August 7.

In addition, Ibrahim said market participants were also waiting for President Donald Trump's decision on appointing officials at the Fed for further clarity on the policy prospects of the central bank.

Ibrahim also highlighted that US President Donald Trump again threatened higher tariffs for Indian goods over the country's purchase of Russian oil over the next 24 hours and also said that a drop in energy prices could pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the war in Ukraine.

"New Delhi calls Trump's threat "unwarranted" and promises to protect its economic interests, which deepens trade rifts between the two countries. Higher US rates will further pressure India's economy, and could trigger further monetary easing in the country," he said.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that many observers did not believe that Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 reached 5.12 percent, an increase from 4.87 percent compared to the previous quarter. Meanwhile, based on economists' polls, economic growth is estimated at 4.80 percent.

Ibrahim explained that the growth rate seemed to oppose concerns over the weakening of economic indicators, including the decline in car sales, weakening consumption, and the contraction of the purchase manager's index, indicating a slowdown in economic activity.

"But the fact that household consumption has occurred is beyond expectations of contributing more than half of Indonesia's GDP, slightly increasing to 4.97 percent year-on-year in the second quarter compared to 4.95 percent in the previous quarter," he said.

Ibrahim said this growth was supported by higher spending on food and travel during a number of religious holidays and school holidays.

In addition, he said that investment growth jumped to its highest level in the last four years by 6.99 percent in the second quarter from the previous 2.12 percent.

"This growth was boosted by infrastructure projects including the expansion of the mass high-speed train. Meanwhile, government spending recorded an annual contraction of 0.33 percent," he said.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading Thursday, August 7, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,360 - IDR 16,420 per US dollar.