JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Wednesday, April 23 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.
To note, citing Bloomberg, on Tuesday, April 22, the rupiah spot exchange rate closed down 0.32 percent to the level of Rp. 16,860 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.32 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,862 per US dollar.
Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said the market was again disappointed triggered by concerns surrounding US monetary policy, after US President Donald Trump announced plans to overhaul the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that US President Donald Trump and his team are continuing to study whether they can fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Trump on Monday reiterated his call to the Fed to lower interest rates, saying the US economy could slow down if the Fed did not cut interest rates immediately. Last week, Powell said that the central bank did not tend to cut interest rates in the near future, citing possible inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty stemming from new rates.
"This development has sparked concerns about Fed independence, which sends ripples to the financial market," he said in a statement, quoted Wednesday, April 23.
In addition, Ibrahim said the tension between US-Chinese trade continues to increase as China issues a stern warning to countries considering trade agreements with the US that could harm China's interests.
China's Ministry of Commerce accuses Washington of using tariffs and monetary sanctions to force countries to limit their trade with China. Beijing stressed that such an agreement that harms its interests will encourage countermeasures.
"This warning comes amid rising tensions in the ongoing China-US trade conflict, which has caused the US to charge up to 145 percent of Chinese goods, which has led China to impose import duties," he said.
Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that Indonesia's trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 4.33 billion in March 2025. However, economists project that the trade surplus will gradually shrink this year due to the impact of Trump's tariffs.
Ibrahim stated that Indonesia's trade balance in the future is still filled with uncertainty, especially due to the increasing risk of weakening export demand and shifting domestic demand.
"The reason is that there has been an escalation of trade wars due to the application of resipprocal rates by the President of the United States (US) Donald Trump to trading partners including Indonesia," he said.
According to him, Trump's tariff could lead to a weakening of demand from Indonesia's main trading partners such as China, the US and the European Union, thereby reducing export volume, especially in the manufacturing sector and natural resource-based ones.
In addition, Ibrahim said that fluctuations in global energy and mineral prices could affect the value of Indonesian exports.
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For information, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced a trade surplus of 4.33 billion US dollars in March 2025 higher than the previous month which was recorded at 3.12 billion US dollars.
Meanwhile, cumulatively, the trade balance from January to March 2025 reached 10.92 billion US dollars, so Indonesia recorded a surplus of 59 consecutive months since May 2020.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but closed lower in trading on Wednesday, April 23, 2025, in the price range of Rp. 16,840 - Rp. 16,900 per US dollar.
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