Global Economy Is Increasingly Dark, Bank Mandiri Economists Are Optimistic That Indonesia's Economy Will Remain Solid

Rupiah (Photo: Antara)

Bank Mandiri said that towards the end of the year, the global economy was marked by increasingly complex global volatility and dynamics.

Even so, Bank Mandiri Chief Economist Andry Asmoro said that the national economy is projected to continue to show positive performance, supported by maintained macroeconomic stability and strengthening in various strategic sectors.

Andry explained that despite the pressure from the uncertainty of global economic policy, especially after the United States election, Indonesia was still able to maintain economic resilience.

"In the midst of global financial market fluctuations triggered by the increase in US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar, the Indonesian economy remains resilient. Growth in the third quarter reached 4.95 percent, supported by increasing government spending and investment," Andry said at the Mandiri Macro and Market Brief Road to Mandiri Investment Forum 2025, Wednesday, November 20.

Andry said that the controlled inflation rate in the range of 1.7 percent until October 2024 is an important indicator of Indonesia's macroeconomic stability. Moreover, with a trade surplus of 24.4 billion US dollars until October 2024.

"Although it has decreased compared to last year, the economy still has support from the export sector," he said.

In addition, Andry said that public consumption also shows a stable trend based on the Mandiri Lending Index (MSI), relatively well-maintained shopping activities with sectors such as electronics, entertainment, and mobility needs recorded positive growth.

"This momentum is expected to increase at the end of the year thanks to activities related to the regional elections as well as the Christmas and New Year holidays," added Andry.

According to Andry, mobility-related sectors such as the hotel and restaurant sector, transportation, warehousing, and other services are expected to have a positive impact. This is because the mobility-related sector has continued a consistent growth pattern since 2022.

Based on the research results of the Bank Mandiri Economist Team, it shows that in the third quarter of 2024 other service sectors, transportation and warehousing, and the provision of accommodation and food grew by 9.95 percent, 8.64 percent and 8.33 percent, respectively.

"We see that the growth in the fourth quarter will be stronger with the contribution of government spending and investment, especially in infrastructure," explained Andry.

Seeing these various supporting factors, Andry said that the Indonesian economy will record growth of 5 percent to 5.05 percent by the end of 2024.

In addition, Andry assessed that maintained economic stability is an important foundation for the sustainability of future growth.

"We are optimistic that Indonesia will be able to face global challenges well and continue the positive growth trend that supports long-term development," he concluded.