Stock Transaction On April Is Predicted Softer, Fasting And Vaccine Is The Determiner

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia predicts the value of stock exchange transactions and the movement of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) will be consolidated in April, in line with unpowered domestic macroeconomic conditions and fasting momentum.

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Investment Information Head, Roger M.M. predicts the value of stock exchange transactions will be trimmed to a range of Rp. 9 trillion per day, down from the January, February, and March averages of Rp. 20 trillion, Rp. 15 trillion, and Rp. 10 trillion per day, respectively.

"April is likely to drop slightly to around Rp. 9 trillion per day, fasting factors will also usually make the value of daily transactions more sluggish than before," Roger said in a press conference Media Day Mirae Asset Sekuritas held online, Thursday, April 8.

He also predicted that JCI will be consolidated downtrend as support 5.892-5.735 and resistance 6.195-6.281. Roger said there are two positive factors that can support the movement of JCI in the future, but will still be diluted by one negative factor, namely macroeconomic conditions.

The first positive sentiment is the issuer's financial performance report for the fiscal year 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. The second is the corporate action of several issuers, especially during the dividend season.

Roger noted that there are some leading issuers (blue chips) that have high dividend yields. Some of them are ADRO 3.3 percent, PGAS 3.2 percent, AKRA 2.7 percent, PTBA 2.7 percent, ASII 2.3 percent, BBRI 2.2 percent, and UNTR 2.1 percent.

"As such, some of the issuer's shares have the opportunity to get a fresh wind from high dividend sentiment," he said.

In terms of macroeconomic conditions, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Economist Anthony Kevin assessed that the prospect of a positive global economic improvement is still limited by domestic conditions that are not good enough. Some of the main conditions are the slow distribution of COVID-19 vaccination and the economy of the lower middle class that has not improved.

Globally, he said there are some key positive sentiments that are predicted to provide a boost to market strengthening. That sentiment is that the world's COVID-19 active numbers are down significantly, the biggest vaccine campaign of all time, and the prospect of economic recovery is on track.

"Vaccine distribution will be key to the world's economic recovery prospects, and its long-term economic improvement at the global level remains promising," Kevin said.

On the downside, the potential for further yield increases from U.S. Treasury bonds will still have an impact on the weakening of domestic financial markets, especially the rupiah. For example, the yield on the benchmark US Treasury series, the 10-year tenor, stood at 1.65 percent, up from 0.9 percent at the end of 2020.