Rupiah Potentially Weakening, Driven By US Inflation Data Release

Dollars and rupiah (photo: Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Monday, October 14, 2024 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

Financial Market Observer and Commodity Ariston Tjendra said the US dollar index seemed to have risen again to the top level of 103, even though at the end of last week, it was still in the range of 102.90.

"This strengthening of the US dollar could be linked to the release of US inflation data in September last week which showed that the condition of US inflation was still difficult to decline, reducing the expectations of further large cuts," he told VOI, Monday, October 14.

In addition, Ariston conveyed that the still-hot East-Criminal conditions also encourage market participants to take positions in safe assets such as gold and US dollars.

According to Ariston this week, the market is looking forward to the truth of additional stimulus rumors from China. China's additional stimulus policy can provide positive sentiment to risky assets including the rupiah.

In addition, the market is also looking forward to the development of the US economy from US retail manufacturing data and sales which will be released to confirm the direction of US monetary policy going forward.

Ariston estimates that the movement of the rupiah on Monday, October 14 has the potential to weaken against the US dollar towards Rp15,650 with potential support in the range of Rp15,550.

Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Friday, October 11, 2024, the rupiah spot exchange rate was closed up 0.64 percent to the level of Rp15,578 per US dollar. Similarly, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed higher by 0.30 percent to a price level of Rp15,609 per US dollar.