IHK September 2024 Predicted To Re-Deflation

Rupiah (Photo: Antara)

JAKARTA - Head of Bank Permata Economist Josua Pardede revealed that the Consumer Price Index (JCI) in September 2024 is projected to experience deflation again and become the fifth month of deflation in a row.

Josua estimates that the JCI in September 2024 is expected to experience deflation of 0.04 percent on a monthly basis or month-to-month (mom). This projection is up slightly from deflation in August 2024 of 0.03 percent (mom).

"The general government in September 2024 is expected to experience a monthly deflation of 0.04 percent (mom), continuing the deflation trend observed during the last four months at 0.03 percent (mom), 0.18 percent (mom), 0.08 percent (mom), and 0.03 percent (mom) in August, July, June, and May 2024," he said in his statement, Monday, September 30.

Josua said that the factor in the deflation trend in September was because it was mostly driven by turbulent component deflation in line with the decline in food prices, especially red chilies and cayenne peppers.

"Therefore, the JCI is expected to experience a monthly deflation of 1.01 percent mom," he said.

Meanwhile, the IHK core component and the IHK price set by the government will show controlled monthly inflation rates of 0.17 percent (mom) and 0.05 percent (mom), respectively, reflecting normalization after inflation related to education and adjustment of non-subsidized fuel prices.

Thus, Josua estimates that year to date inflation or from January to September 2024 will be in the range of 0.83 percent (ytd), much lower than recorded in the same period last year of 1.69 percent (ytd).

Previously, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) revealed that the Consumer Price Index (IHK) in August 2024 recorded a deflation of 0.03 percent (mtm), so that on an annual basis it was relatively stable at 2.12 percent (yoy) from the previous month's realization of 2.13 percent (yoy).