JCI At The Beginning Of The Week Potentially Weakening, Here's The Sentiment

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) is predicted to fluctuate but will close lower in the range of 7,600 7,800 in today's trading, Monday 30 September, due to the sale of foreign investors and indications of profit taking by market participants.

In last week's trading, Friday, September 27, the JCI closed down 0.61 percent or 47.59 points to the level of 7,696.91. A total of 246 stocks rose, 312 stocks fell and 243 stocks were stagnant. Meanwhile, market capitalization was recorded at IDR 12,875 trillion.

Phintraco Sekuritas analyst Valdy Kurniawan said the JCI tends to be the opposite of global and regional indexes at close last Friday.

"In addition to indications of profit taking, an increase in market appetites to the East Asian capital market has helped pressure the JCI in line with the net sell of significant foreign investors in recent trading days," Valdy said in his research.

Valdy believes that a number of monetary stimulus in the United States (US), Europe and China have not had an impact on Indonesian manufacturing in September 2024. Indonesia's manufacturing index is estimated to be at 49.5 in September 2024, up limited from 48.9 in August 2024.

Furthermore, prices are indicated to have increased in September 2024 from rising core inflation to 2.6 percent yoy in September 2024 from 2.2 percent August 2024. On this basis, Valdi estimates that the JCI movement will expand in the range of 7,600 to 7,800 next week, with a pivot level of 7,700.

The resistance level is estimated to be at 7,750 with support at the level of 7,600. As is known, Wall Street's indexes ended in various ways last Friday.

Nevertheless, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tended to grow 0.33 percent to record the highest level at that time. Sentiments stem from indications of a slowdown in inflation from the 2.2 percent YoY's Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) decline in August 2024 from 2.5 percent yoy in July 2024.

This data validates the aggressiveness of cutting the Fed's interest rate in the latest FOMC. Meanwhile, indices in Europe continued strengthening last Friday.

"The strengthening was supported by the rally price of luxury goods stocks following expectations of increased demand from China after the monetary stimulus by PBOC last week," Valdy said.

As previously reported, the JCI parked in the red zone with a decrease of 0.60 percent to the level of 7,696.91 during trading this week, 23 to 27 September 2024. Even so, the average value of the exchange's HARAN transaction actually rose to Rp16.36 trillion.