Rupiah Economists Estimated To Strengthen To Rp15,800 Per US Dollar By The End Of 2024

Rupiah and US Dollars (Photo: Antara)

JAKARTA - Head of Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede said the rupiah exchange rate has the potential to strengthen to the level of IDR 15,800 per US dollar by the end of 2024 if global economic growth improves.

"At the end of this year the Rupiah will be around Rp. 15,800-Rp. 16,100, we hope that its condition is relatively still under control, even though the turmoil is global, because we see that the condition of the global financial market is quite volatile," he said at the PermataBank Virtual Media Briefing - PIER Economic Review: Mid-Year 2024, Thursday, August 8.

Josua said that the current financial market condition is still volatile and can cause foreign investors who store their funds in the Rupiah Bank Indonesia Securities (SRBI) to move their funds to other countries' instruments.

According to Josua, foreign ownership of BI's instruments is recorded to have an increasing trend, which is one of the causes of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves to increase in July 2024.

On the same occasion, Bank Permata Senior Economist Faisal Rachman said that the position of the rupiah exchange rate, which today is below Rp. 16,000 per US dollar, can continue its strengthening until the end of the year if the global economic dynamics improves.

"(The strengthening of the exchange rate can continue) if indeed the global condition continues to improve, the condition is very vulnerable for the risk market on, then it will definitely invite inflow into the country," he said.

According to Faisal, the movement of the rupiah is strongly influenced by fundamental factors for the domestic and global economy.

Faisal said that from the domestic side, the country's economy was under pressure due to the slowdown in the global economy. However, he claims the domestic economy is still resilient. This can be seen from the economic growth in the second quarter of 2024 which was recorded at 5.05 percent.

Our growth economy is still able to grow 5 percent. Our inflation is maintained low when compared to developed countries. Well, now just wait for the global one," he said.

According to Faisal, if global economic conditions continue to show improvement, then foreign capital flows will return to the domestic market.

"If that continues, it does not deny that the strengthening of the rupiah can continue and we see that there is potential for us to reach the level of Rp. 15,800," he hoped.