JCI Monday Drops 3.40 Percent, Check Out Tuesday's Movement Projection

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) collapsed 3.40 percent or fell 248.47 points to 7,059.65 at the end of trading yesterday, Tuesday, August 5. How is the JCI projection today?

Phintraco Sekuritas in his research said that the fall of the JCI earlier this week coincided with a sharp decline in the Asian stock market. All sectoral indexes declined along with the JCI. The energy sector collapsed 4.94 percent. The raw goods sector plunged 4.69 percent.

The transportation and logistics sectors fell 4.23 percent. The industrial sector slumped 3.73 percent. The infrastructure sector was cut by 3.15 percent.

Then, the property and real estate sectors were entangled by 3.05%. The technology sector collapsed 2.92 percent. The financial sector slipped 2.69 percent.

The non-primer consumption goods sector fell 2.47 percent. The primary consumption goods sector was eroded by 1.77 percent. The health sector fell 0.72 percent

Yesterday's weakening of the JCI was the impact of panic selling investors in responding to external issues. First, concerns about the US economic recession after rising the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent in July 2024.

Second, the decision of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise the benchmark interest rate to 0.25 percent which triggered a sell-off on stocks in Japan on Friday 2 August and Monday 5 August. The increase in the BoJ benchmark interest rate triggered a significant strengthening of Yen's exchange rate.

"This condition is detrimental to the majority of issuers in Japan who are export-oriented or trading, as well as investors who have taken advantage of BoJ's monetary policy stability as part of its investment strategy," explained research by Phintraco Sekuritas.

Third, concerns about the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict that could trigger full-scale war. The conditions above cause panic in the Indonesian capital market, which is indicated by the weakening of the JCI which had reached 4.2 percent in the second trading session today.

In fact, the latest domestic economic data is relatively solid. The realization of economic growth was at 5.05 percent yoy in the second quarter, higher than expectations at 5 percent yoy. In addition, the escalation of conflicts so far has triggered a relatively profitable increase in coal prices for Indonesia.

"As long as oil prices still fluctuate in the range of 80 US dollars per barrel, there has been no immediate negative impact on Indonesia," he explained.

Therefore, Phintraco Sekuritas still sees a technical return IHSG opportunity to around 7,100 7,120 on Tuesday 6 August trading tomorrow. To be precise, support is at the level of 7,000 and resistance at 7,120, with a pivot of 7,050.

The reason is that Indonesia's domestic data is still solid, even though global economic conditions are volatile.

Phintraco Sekuritas recommends stocks that focus on today's defensive stocks, including MYOR, AMRT, MAPI, INDF, and KLBF.