Sri Mulyani Estimates Rupiah Will Be At Rp16,100 Per US Dollar At The End Of 2024

Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani (Photo: dock. Antara)

Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati projects that the rupiah exchange rate is projected to be in the range of Rp. 15,900 to Rp. 16,100 per US dollar by the end of 2024. This figure is far from the target of macroeconomic assumptions in the 2024 State Budget which is targeted at Rp. 15,000 per US dollar.

"Realization in the first semester of 2024, the rupiah moved lower by IDR 15,901 per US dollar above the macro assumption of IDR 15,000 per US dollar," he said in a working meeting with the Banggar DPR RI, Monday, July 8.

Meanwhile, Sri Mulyani estimates that in the second semester of 2024 the rupiah exchange rate will move in the range of Rp. 16,000 to Rp. 16,200 per US dollar, and by the end of the year it is estimated to reach Rp. 15,900 to Rp. 16,100 per US dollar.

Sri Mulyani conveyed that the movement of the rupiah exchange rate, which is far from the macroeconomic assumption in the 2024 State Budget, was influenced by the volatility of the Fed's interest rate policy in the future.

On the other hand, economic growth until the end of this year is estimated to be in the range of 5 percent to 5.2 percent year on year (yoy) in the upper limit in accordance with the assumption in the 2024 State Budget, which is 5.2 percent (yoy).

Sri Mulyani said that in line with domestic demand, which is still quite strong for the national economy. However, the government still has to be vigilant with various global risks.

Then, year-end inflation is projected to be in the range of 2.7 percent (yoy) to 3.2 percent (yoy). This figure is an increase when compared to projections in the macro-economic assumption of the 2024 State Budget of 2.8 percent (yoy).

Sri Mulyani said that the weather dynamics is a major risk factor that can boost food inflation and can affect general inflation.

Meanwhile, the 10-year state securities (SBN) interest rate is projected to reach 6.9 percent to 7.1 percent by the end of 2024, this figure is soaring from the assumption in the 2024 State Budget which is 6.7 percent. This increase is influenced by the dynamics of the global financial market and the liquidity of the domestic market in the future.

Meanwhile, the price of Indonesian crude oil is projected to be around USD 79 to USD 85 per barrel by the end of 2024, this figure is an increase from the assumption in the 2024 State Budget which amounted to USD 81 per barrel.

"The movement of oil prices is influenced by geopolitical factors and production policies and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+)," he said.

Furthermore, oil lifting is projected to decrease to 565 thousand to 609 thousand barrels per day by the end of the year, this figure is down from the assumption of the 2024 State Budget which is 635 thousand barrels per day.

Furthermore, gas lifting is estimated to reach 943 thousand to 1,007 thousand barrels per day, this figure is down from the assumption of the 2024 State Budget which is 1,033 thousand barrels per day.

Sri Mulyani conveyed that oil and gas lifting is under assumptions because of the optimization of wells that have been operating through increased drilling and facilities maintenance activities.