Ahead Of The Release Of BPS, The Indonesian Economy 2022 Is Predicted To Be 5.18 Percent

Illustration of Rupiah (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - Economic growth in 2022 is estimated to reach 5.18 percent to 5.2 percent. Meanwhile, growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 is predicted to reach 4.56 percent year on year.

This prediction is a calculation of the Economist of the University of Indonesia Economic and Community Research Institute (LPEM) Teuku Riefky.

"Considering all things, Indonesia may not grow above 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, due to the loss of low-base effect and lower commodity prices by the end of 2022 compared to the second and third quarters of 2022," Riefky said, quoting between Saturday, February 4, 2023. Riefky said growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 was lower than the third quarter of 2022 which was 5.72 percent. This is due to the increase in inflation which is above the Bank Indonesia target of 3 percent plus minus 1 percent due to the surge in commodity prices which led to the need for adjustment of fuel oil prices (BBM). Nevertheless, inflationary pressures in 2022 are still lower than initial estimates and are relatively still maintained. This is due to delays in rising fuel prices and a well-coordinated normalization policy of inflation by BI and the Indonesian government.

"Indonesia has succeeded in channeling windfall profit commodities to increase revenue on the budget and delay the increase in fuel prices," he said. It's just that the economic downturn in the fourth quarter of 2022 also occurred because the prolonged trade surplus period is expected to end soon considering commodity prices are starting to decline gradually. For 2023, Riefky estimates that economic growth will range from 4.9 to 5.0 percent.