Indonesia's Economy Is Projected To Still Grow 4.7 Percent Amid The Threat Of Global Recession

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JAKARTA - The government has set a national economic growth target at 5.1 to 5.3 percent. This departs from the decline in Indonesia's unemployment and poverty rate. Where the unemployment rate decreased to 5.8 percent in August 2022 and the reduction in poverty to 9.54 percent in March 2022. Executive Director of CELIOS Bhima Yudhistira said from this achievement, his party projects that Indonesia's economic growth this year will be slightly below the government's projection. Bhima explained that the cause of the weakening of economic growth was due to the slowdown in exports due to the potential impact of the global economic recession. In addition, commodity prices are starting to moderate and public consumption. "The projection of this year's economy can still grow above 4.7 percent," said Bhima, in Jakarta, Friday, January 27. However, Bhima is still optimistic because people are starting to move, and social restrictions are lifted.

"Once the economy started to move again, workers who had been laid off and laid off received a call to work again," he said. For example, continued Bhima, in the tourism sector and the creative economy began to revive, and there was an opening of job vacancies.

If job opportunities increase, then the poverty rate can be suppressed," he said. Bhima said, despite having weakened people's purchasing power, Indonesia's domestic economy is blessing is disguise. Indonesia has a blessings in disguise amidst the pressures of the global recession. First, the large domestic market let alone there are 190 million productive ages. Second, SMEs quite contribute greatly to employment. And only 18 percent of export-oriented MSMEs are more immune to weakening economic activity in export destination countries said Bhima. For this reason, Bhima said that in order for the national economy to be more stretched, the government needs to provide stimulus in early 2023. For example, tax relaxation, opening of greater job opportunities, and the speed of spending on budgets at the center and regions.

Meanwhile, Trisakti University public policy observer Trubus Rahadiansyah assessed that the reduction in poverty was more due to factors in the presence of social assistance (social assistance) from the government for the community than the opening of new jobs. If the decline is due to social assistance. For this reason, Trubus suggested that the sector should prioritize it to anticipate the threat of a global crisis. Not only that, Trubus assessed that social assistance (bansos) should also be continued because this becomes a mainstay, even though the creation of new jobs is also very urgent. The government must be aware of the safe and potential sectors of the global crisis genrising such as plantations, agriculture, cooperatives, and technology. Furthermore, Trubus said, social assistance will function to drive the economy at the lower levels of society, so that domestic consumption can be maintained. Nevertheless, the government is also asked to make improvements to governance, evaluation and supervision of social assistance distribution. Bansos continue to run, why? Because social assistance becomes a 'construction' for the lower class of communities, as well as driving the economy below,' concluded it. Previously, Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto was optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth reached 5.3 percent. This departs from economic growth in 2022 which has successfully grown above 5 percent. The consolidation of the economy is still strong. Consumption, investment, and export drive the national economy,'' said Coordinating Minister Airlangga. Moreover, the economic recovery from the impact of COVID-19 continues, fiscal consolidation runs faster than the estimated target with the deficit of the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) has returned to below 3 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (PDB), namely 2.38 percent of the GDPB.