The Price Of Cenderung Oil Is Down, The Former Deputy Minister Of Energy And Mineral Resources Said The Cause Was Series Of Causes

Illustration (Photo: Doc. Ministry of Finance)

JAKARTA Throughout December 2022, there was a downward trend in world oil prices which was suspected to have occurred due to a number of factors. The reason is, this condition is considered a separate reversal in the midst of the high price tag of global energy commodities in recent times.

Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources for the 2016-2019 period Arcandra Tahar revealed that there are at least two important events that will be an important test of the trend of falling oil prices. First, the December 2022 period is the deadline decided by the European Union (EU) to stop all imports of crude oil from Russia to countries on the Blue Continent.

The second incident in February 2023 was the deadline decided by the EU to stop all imports of fuel (middle distille) from Russia to European countries.

He noted that in the last week of December 2022 Brent crude prices fell by around 13 percent compared to November 2022 (month to month/mtm). Meanwhile, the average price in November was still above 91 US dollars per barrel.

"Especially for December, we have said there will be a price fluctuation of crude. How much goes up and down we can't predict it. Why? It is a big gambling for European countries to stop imports of crude from Russia. How big is the courage (risk appetite) of the EU to pressure Russia to stop the war with Ukraine by limiting Russian sources of funds through crude import sanctions. The name gambling is certainly very difficult to estimate who won and lost," he said in a written statement, quoted on Tuesday, December 27.

According to Arcandra, the effectiveness of this price restriction sanction against Russian revenues (state revenue) is still in doubt. Because apart from many countries refusing, the US itself still allows its companies to trade, finance, shipping, insurance and customer brokering. Only crude imports are prohibited from Russia.

"Negara-negara yang mengandalkan impor crude untuk memenuhi kebutuhan energi mereka sedikit mengenah dengan turunnya harga crude, tutur dia.

Arcandra added, there is a possibility of a strategic battle between EU and Russia in the face of winter.

One thing that might happen is that Russia will soon reduce its crude production so that supplies are disrupted.

During the December period, Russia will likely continue to produce full because it will take time to reduce production so as not to damage their oil wells.

If Russia is getting ready to lower this production, the new chapter of the strategy battle will continue until next year. It's complicated," he stressed.