DBS Research: Use An Optimistic Scenario, JCI In 2023 Can Use Level 8,300

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - Head of Research DBS Group Maynard Arif estimates that the performance of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) will remain positive or reach 7,700 in the basic scenario.

"In terms of macro, we see that the increase in interest rates will slow down and the rupiah will perform better in 2023 compared to 2022," said Maynard in the Group Interview quoted by Antara, Tuesday, December 6.

In a more optimistic scenario, JCI is predicted to reach 8,200 to 8,300, but to achieve this value, the central bank's benchmark interest rate needs to be lowered and commodity prices need to remain high.

"For the base case, we see for the time being, from the interest rate policy, the Fed will hold back and not reduce interest rates in 2023. Commodity prices will tend to be corrected slightly, but still better than 2021," he added.

The easing of community activities due to better COVID-19 control, as well as the start of various campaigns ahead of the 2024 election are also factors that keep the JCI's performance and the national economy positive.

"When it is the election year, the JCI's performance is usually quite good, although in 2019 it is not very good, but still positive. This is expected to be a driving factor for the JCI in the second semester of 2023," he said.

He estimates that in 2023 the performance of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) will remain positive with earnings per share (EPS) growing by an average of 4 percent or lower than growth in 2022 which is around 36 percent.

The growth of EPS for Indonesian companies in 2023 is also lower than the average growth of EPS companies in other countries because in 2022 the growth of EPS for Indonesian companies is quite high compared to other countries.

"It must be remembered, this is a pretty good performance effect in 2022. We are rising quite high in terms of the company's performance which is listed on the stock exchange. Our best increase is between Asean and developed countries. But growth will still occur in 2023," he said.