JAKARTA - The geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet come to light. Seeing this condition, the Head of the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business (SKK Migas) Dwi Soetjipto predicts that the world oil price until 2023 will still be above 100 US dollars per barrel.
"Some analyzes see that this will go up and down, while some see that the increase is quite high," he said in a presentation on SKK Migas' performance, Friday, April 22.
Dwi said the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still affecting the world economy, including soaring prices for energy commodities such as crude oil. In addition, the world is still in the phase of economic recovery due to the Covid-19 pandemic that has occurred in the last 3 years.
"In terms of forecasts, because the Covid-19 pandemic will subside, so that traveling will increase sharply, business activities will increase sharply which will affect demand, not to mention the conflict between Russia and Ukraine which disrupts oil supply. It is estimated that prices will still be high in the next two years, " continued Dwi.
In his presentation, he revealed that the price of Brent crude oil in March 2022 reached 112.46 US dollars per barrel. The highest figure was recorded on March 8, 2022 at 127.98 US dollars per barrel.
Meanwhile, the assumption of Indonesia's crude oil price (ICP) in the 2022 State Budget (APBN) is set at US$63 per barrel. Not much different from the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG), global gas prices are now also increasing to above 25 US dollars per million British thermal units (MMBTU).
"In the long term, it is estimated that Asian gas prices will still approach 10 US dollars per MMBTU, higher than Europe and the US," he said.
However, he admits that the volatility of LNG is quite large considering that the LNG price was once below US$3.
"It's hard to guess how much, but in the long term it will still be enough, at least until 2027," concluded Dwi.
According to him, the high world oil price must be utilized by maximizing the efforts of oil and gas lifting in order to have a positive impact on the economy and state revenues.
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