JAKARTA - Prabowo Subianto has the potential to run again as a presidential candidate (candidate) in the 2024 Election. Almost all political surveys released over the past six months show Prabowo's strength. He is always at the top. Even so, it does not mean that Prabowo's steps are easy. He was overshadowed by the newcomers.
The discourse on the re-nomination of the General Chair has been voiced by a number of Gerindra Party officials. Secretary General Ahmad Muzani said, "In 2024 Pak Prabowo, God willing, will advance in the presidential election."
The reason, said Muzani, is that there is still a lot of pressure from the community who wants Prabowo to return to the electoral contest. Ahmad Muzani is confident because of the positive trend in Prabowo's election in a number of survey results.
This was revealed by Muzani when attending the Regional Coordination Meeting (Rakorda) of the South Sulawesi Gerindra DPD, Saturday, October 9. Muzani also asked all the administrators of the DPD, DPC, and PAC to the South Sulawesi branches to close ranks.
Muzani also explained that Prabowo's electability rate in South Sulawesi in the 2019 election was at 57 percent. Now he is targeting an increase of up to 65 percent in the 2024 General Election. Therefore, Muzani hopes that no Gerindra cadres in South Sulawesi will act.
"I respectfully ask that no members of the South Sulawesi DPRD cause us to lose."
On that occasion the chairman of the Gerindra DPD South Sulawesi Andi Iwan Darmawan Aras, who represents 12 district/city DPCs in South Sulawesi also declared support for Prabowo.
"I, as the Chairman of the South Sulawesi DPD, on behalf of the entire board, have requested and asked for Mr. Prabowo's willingness to be nominated as a presidential candidate in 2024," Andi said.
Prabowo's might in the survey
Almost all the results of political surveys released over the past six months show Prabowo's strength as the strongest candidate for president. The Minister of Defense always occupies the top position. Even so the newcomers loom.
The Puspoll Indonesia survey showed Prabowo's electability reached 20.9 percent. Highest. Under Prabowo, there are DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, who recorded 15.4 percent and 13.8 percent electability, respectively.
The Puspoll survey was released last April. The survey involved 1,600 respondents, with a margin of error of approximately 2.45 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.
Moving forward to June, the survey of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) Denny JA is also the same. Prabowo ranks first as a presidential candidate with an electability of 23.5 percent. Below Prabowo are Ganjar (15.5%) and Anies (13.8 percent).
The LSI survey was conducted from 27 May to 4 June, using face-to-face interview data collection techniques for 1,200 respondents. The survey method uses multistage-random sampling, with a margin of error of around 2.9 percent.
In August, it was Indostrategic's turn to release the survey results. Prabowo topped the list with an electability of 17.5 percent. There were Anies and Ganjar who also followed with an electability of 17 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively.
The Indostrategic survey involved 2,400 respondents from 34 provinces. The survey's margin of error is 2 percent with a 95 percent confidence level.
Political analyst Hendri Satrio said the factor driving Prabowo's current high electability was the electability savings from the two previous elections. "That's his capital, we know how many loyalists we have," he told VOI, Monday, October 11.
Despite the potential, Hendri said Prabowo's move would not be easy. Prabowo cannot advance alone, of course. Gerindra must have coalition partners. Prabowo's initial challenge was to make sure that "he (Prabowo) is ready to change history from losing twice to winning."
Shadows of the newcomers
The daily chairman of the Gerindra Party, Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, emphasized that until now there has been no official decision regarding Prabowo's candidacy. This was conveyed by Dasco when answering reporters' questions about the coalition's future opportunities.
"If we talk about coalitions, it is still too far away because we are still waiting for confirmation whether Pak Prabowo is also willing to be nominated for president by the Gerindra Party ... There will come a time when we from the Gerindra Party will issue official statements regarding the presidential candidate that will be carried by the Gerindra Party ," Dasco told reporters.
Contacted separately, Gerindra politician Arief Puyuono admitted that he was aware that Prabowo's candidacy was not easy. Although strong in a number of surveys, Prabowo has to face a number of other figures, especially newcomers whose 'game' cannot be underestimated.
"Although there is still a chance to progress, winning is not an easy matter. All Gerindra cadres must work hard. The chance to win is still 30-70 percent. It's still not safe to win," Arief, contacted by VOI, Monday, October 11.
"Because what Prabowo will be facing will be young and energetic presidential candidates who have already started to carry out imaging and spread the charm of empty messages that might make people anesthetized by them," he added.
Political analyst, Hendri Satrio views the shadow of this newcomer not only affecting competition outside Gerindra, but also internally. As described above. The first thing that must be ensured by Gerindra is that its presidential candidate can 'sell'.
If not, Gerindra must go forward with an alternative presidential candidate. From Hendri's perspective, the most potential internal figure to be promoted is the Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy (Menparekraf) Sandiaga Uno.
"If it is difficult for Prabowo to find a coalition partner, Gerindra must automatically have a plan b. And it could be that plan b encourages the figure of Sandiaga Uno, who incidentally is more acceptable and easier for the Gerindra coalition to accept," Hendri said.
This was agreed by the Executive Director of the Voxpol Center for Research and Consulting Pangi Syarwi Chaniago. Prabowo's electability, said Pangi, is not a guarantee that he will be safe. Alternative candidates that appear, both internally and from outside the party will affect Prabowo's position.
"Prabowo could be overtaken halfway through his electability," Pangi told VOI, Monday, October 11.
Anies and Ganjar
Back to surveys. Still compiled from the results of a survey conducted in the past six months, Prabowo remains strong. He has never been separated from the top row of presidential candidates with the highest electability.
But Anies and Ganjar showed resistance. In the Charta Politica survey, Ganjar occupies the top position. The electability is 20.6 percent. Under Ganjar, there is Anies who recorded 17.8 percent electability.
Meanwhile, Prabowo is in third place. The electability is 17.5 percent. The survey took place July 12-20 and involved 1,200 respondents.
Multistage random sampling was used as the sampling method, with a margin of error of about 2.83 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.
Another survey by Political Opinion showed Prabowo was knocked out of the top three. With 18.7 percent electability, Anies took first place. Ganjar followed with an electability percentage of 16.5 percent.
Another name that appears in the competition between the three -- Prabowo, Anies, Ganjar -- is Sandiaga Uno. Menparekraf occupies the third position with an electability of 13.5 percent.
Prabowo himself occupies the fifth position, behind another newcomer, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), the General Chair of the Democratic Party, whose electability is 9.9 percent. The IPO survey was conducted from August 2-10, involving 1,200 respondents.
Using the multistage random sampling method, this survey shows a margin of error of 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, the level of accuracy and confidence in the data is 97 percent.
Even so, Hendri Satrio, who is also the founder of the KedaiKOPI Survey Institute, said that the pursuit of Anies and Ganjar did not necessarily affect the political practice of Prabowo's candidacy. The reason is, "Anies and Ganjar don't have tickets yet, do they. Meanwhile, Prabowo does."
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