JAKARTA - DKI Jakarta Governor, Anies Baswedan, claims that the spread of COVID-19 in the capital is starting to move away from an emergency status. The indicator is that active cases and emergency room occupancy in hospitals are starting to decline. Is this claim true?
Anies also explained this on his Twitter social media account. In his tweet, Anies showed a comparison of the emergency room situation at the Duren Sawit Hospital a month ago and now.
It seems that the emergency room on Monday, July 26, looks much quieter than the situation last month. "Alhamdulillah, by Allah's permission, and since we have all reduced mobility, the crisis of the pandemic in Jakarta continues to decline", said Anies.
This is a photo of the emergency room condition at Duren Sawit Hospital a month ago and today. Alhamdulillah, by Allah's permission and since we have all reduced mobility, the crisis of the pandemic in Jakarta continues to decline…#JakartaBangkit #PPKMJakartahttps://t.co/gsv5e8rDkD pic.twitter.com/yJZu33CbTa
— Anies Baswedan | Already #VaksinDulu (@aniesbaswedan) July 26, 2021
According to Anies, the number of active COVID-19 cases in Jakarta has started to fall to 64 thousand. Likewise with the positivity rate which is now at 25 percent and funerals with corona procedures below 200 per day.
"In order of the situation we are facing, the positivity rate is decreasing, the ER queue is starting to unravel, the ER rooms are starting to loosen up, gradually the number of hospitalizations is decreasing, the ICU is also decreasing", said Anies.
In addition, according to the head of the Mitigation Team for the Indonesian Doctors Association (PB IDI), Adib Khumaidi, the news about the decline in COVID-19 cases in Jakarta is true. This can be seen from the decrease in the hospital occupancy rate or bed occupancy rate (BOR). According to IDI provisional data, the BOR in Jakarta has fallen to 76 percent and the ICU BOR has also fallen to 85 percent.
This good news from Jakarta was also appreciated by the Chair of the Indonesian Doctors Association (IDI) COVID-19 Handling Task Force, Professor Zubairi Djoerban. "The latest figures in Jakarta show that positive cases are dropping, hospital occupancy is falling, and crucially: high vaccination rates... I hope the restrictions will remain until transmission rates are lowest".
The latest figures in Jakarta show that positive cases have fallen, hospital occupancy has fallen, and crucially: high vaccination rates. That is 7 million first dose vaccination. I hope the restrictions remain until the lowest transmission rate. Appreciation for the Government of Jakarta.
— Zubairi Djoerban (@ProfesorZubairi) July 27, 2021
Java hasn't died down
Even so, COVID-19 cases outside Jakarta, including Java and Bali, still have not shown signs of decreasing according to the target. According to Airlangga University Epidemiologist Windhu Purnomo, the COVID-19 transmission situation in Java and Bali has not improved.
“If cases seem to drop on certain days, it's because the number of tests has decreased. The positivity rate is very high, 5-8 times the WHO standard which is a maximum of 5 percent," said Windhu to Kompas.
In addition, according to Windhu, the mortality rate is also still increasing. "BOR is also still stagnant, although there is a slight decrease in some areas, this could also happen because there is an increase in the number of beds", he said.
One area that has not shown signs of decreasing cases is Banyumas Regency, Central Java. This was revealed by the Epidemiologist at Jenderal Soedirman University, Yudhi Wibowo. According to him, although in the last seven days the addition of cases in Banyumas has fluctuated, on average there has been an increase of 35.6 percent of cases.
In addition, the control of COVID-19 cases in DKI Jakarta is also not followed by its neighboring province, West Java. Compared to Jakarta, there are 128 thousand active cases in West Java. Even the additional cases of death also surpassed Jakarta.
On Monday, there were 226 additional deaths in West Java. Meanwhile, in DKI Jakarta, there were 160 deaths. The areas with the highest cases in West Java include Depok City, Bekasi City, Bandung City, Bogor Regency, and Garut Regency.
It's still too early
Looking at the situation, Anies Baswedan's claim that Jakarta is avoiding an emergency seems too premature. Because, according to Griffith University Australian Epidemiologist, Dicky Budiman, the situation in Java as a whole cannot be separated.
"Jakarta indeed has a good performance like 3T compared to other regions, but in general, DKI also cannot be separated from the situation of other regions. Because Jakarta is a magnet for every socio-economic activity. That is why Jakarta is once again still in a vulnerable situation", said Dicky to VOI.
According to Dicky, even though the performance of the vaccination program has been good, talking about the threat of delta variants, it must be overcome by a combination of many strategies. "Not only vaccinations but also 3T and 5M must be carried out consistently. And there is a role from outside the region in this situation in Jakarta".
Another reason why Anies' claim is still too early is that it "preceded" projections from epidemiologists who predicted that new COVID-19 cases would begin to subside around the end of August to September 2021. "Because the predictions for COVID-19 cases in Java are almost the same (around the end of August)", said Dicky.
"Once again, when it comes to strategies for dealing with the pandemic, we must take the worst possible anticipation to prevent many victims. Both sick and dead", he added.
And according to Dicky, claims of success in dealing with COVID-19 are legitimate. However, to maintain vigilance "we must continue to convey that this situation is still critical", he concluded.
*Read other information about COVID-19 or other interesting articles from Ramdan Febrian Arifin.
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