JAKARTA - The Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) assesses that Indonesia's economic growth of 5.11 percent on an annual basis (year on year/YoY) in 2025 contains irregularities. Because, there is something that is not synchronous between the growth rate and the structure of contributors to gross domestic product (GDP).
On February 5, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) released the national economic growth figure for 2025 at 5.11 percent, higher than the 2024 achievement which experienced a growth of 5.03 percent.
Head of BPS Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti said that the growth rate of the economy in the fourth quarter of 2025 grew by 5.39 percent, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic. This growth rate is also much faster than the third quarter of 2025 which was 5.04 percent YoY, and much faster than the realization of the same period last year or the fourth quarter of 2024 which was 5.02 percent YoY.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said that the achievement in the fourth quarter was the highest in recent years for the end of the year. This development is considered as an initial capital because some of the economic engines have not been fully optimal throughout 2025.
"This is a positive signal (for economic growth in 2026). Overall, economic growth is quite good, growing 5.11 percent. The important thing is that the direction of the economy has turned around," said Purbaya in the Cikupa area, Tangerang Regency, Thursday (5/2/2026).
Economic growth is the growth of GDP of an area, in this case the country. GDP is the accumulation of the value of household consumption, investment, government spending, and exports of goods and services minus the value of imports.
BPS claims that growth in manufacturing activities, domestic consumption, and fiscal stimulus will be the main support for economic growth throughout 2025. BPS also said that Indonesia's GDP on a current price basis (ADHB) in 2025 reached IDR 23,821.1 trillion. With this calculation basis, GDP growth or economic growth on an annual basis reached 5.11 percent.
Seeing the data released by BPS regarding national economic growth, Celios Economic Director Nailul Huda highlighted a number of irregularities. He assessed that there were indications of hidden motives in the recording of the economic growth figures. According to his suspicion, the GDP calculation is adjusted to keep the fiscal deficit ratio under control.
"Changing the GDP fact so that the fiscal deficit is maintained. Defective thinking, that is what comes to my mind when I hear Indonesia's economic growth in 2025 at 5.11 percent YoY, with economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 at 5.39 percent yoy," said Huda to VOI.
According to him, cumulatively throughout 2025, household consumption and gross fixed capital formation (PMTB) did not grow beyond 5.11 percent, even though these two components contributed 82.65 percent to GDP. This also raises fundamental questions about the main sources of national economic growth.
"Then where does the growth source that makes the figure 5.11 percent come from?" he said.
In his presentation some time ago, BPS Head Amalia Adinggar said exports were the component with the highest growth, namely 7.03 percent. However, Huda explained, exports cannot stand alone, because there is import in international trade activities.
Even though net exports grew high, said Huda, its contribution to GDP was relatively limited, only 8.47 percent. Therefore, it is illogical to become the main driver of aggregate growth.
In contrast to the Tax RevenueThe economic condition which is said to be okay, at least if referring to the BPS statement, is actually opposite to the condition of tax revenue, where tax revenue has experienced a fairly deep contraction, especially related to consumption, both VAT (Value Added Tax) and PPnBM (Sales Tax on Luxury Goods).
Logically, said Huda, it is precisely when economic conditions improve that tax revenue should increase. "Naturally, when the economy is good, tax revenue also improves. As a result, this contradictory figure becomes a question," he said.
Another anomaly is that, on a quarterly basis, household consumption increased to 5.11 percent at the end of the year, and this is in line with the increase in the Consumer Confidence Index. However, he reminded that household consumption had once grown above 5.11 percent without being followed by economic growth of 5.39 percent.
"This means that the main leverage remains PMTB," he said.
Based on a number of irregularities, Huda also questioned whether the increase in GDP was related to efforts to maintain the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP. He gave an example, with a fiscal deficit of Rp659.1 trillion and a deficit ratio of 2.92 percent, it would take GDP on the basis of prevailing prices of around Rp23,804 trillion.
"The number is almost similar to what BPS announced. Is there any special order from the Ministry of Finance?" said Huda.
The English, Chinese, Japanese, Arabic, and French versions are automatically generated by the AI. So there may still be inaccuracies in translating, please always see Indonesian as our main language. (system supported by DigitalSiber.id)
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